--> Abstract: Simulation of Field Size Distribution - Base for Sound Strategic Decision in Exploration for Oil and Gas, by M. D. Belonin, Y. V. Podolsky, and E. M. Smirnova; #90942 (1997).

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Abstract: Simulation of Field Size Distribution - Base for Sound Strategic Decision in Exploration for Oil and Gas

BELONIN, MICHAEL D.*, YURY V. PODOLSKY, EKATERINA M. SMIRNOVA

The objects of evaluation are large areas (or their parts) with similar geology and exploration maturity.

Two independent methods for simulation of field-size distribution are suggested. The first one describes the ultimate resources distribution by truncated Pareto function or, better still, by histogram. Another way to construct field-size distributions is connected with analysis of the seismic profile density and the sizes of actual discoveries.

Simulation of future discoveries is run by Monte-Carlo method. Probability of new discoveries is: a) proportional to decimal fraction of undiscovered resources that fall in each class of fields, or b) determined by seismic profiles density.

Simulation models are used for estimation:

- Volumes of initial and undiscovered resources;

- Future discoveries structure;

- Economic resource estimates;

- Long-range exploration planning.

Validity of the above-mentioned technologies was tested by results of exploration in many basins of Russia.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90942©1997 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Vienna, Austria