Abstract: Simulation of Field Size Distribution - Base for Sound Strategic Decision in Exploration for Oil and Gas
BELONIN, MICHAEL D.*, YURY V. PODOLSKY, EKATERINA M. SMIRNOVA
The objects of evaluation are large areas (or their parts) with similar geology and exploration maturity.
Two independent methods for simulation of field-size distribution are suggested. The first one describes the ultimate resources distribution by truncated Pareto function or, better still, by histogram. Another way to construct field-size distributions is connected with analysis of the seismic profile density and the sizes of actual discoveries.
Simulation of future discoveries is run by Monte-Carlo method. Probability of new discoveries is: a) proportional to decimal fraction of undiscovered resources that fall in each class of fields, or b) determined by seismic profiles density.
Simulation models are used for estimation:
- Volumes of initial and undiscovered resources;
- Future discoveries structure;
- Economic resource estimates;
- Long-range exploration planning.
Validity of the above-mentioned technologies was tested by results of exploration in many basins of Russia.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90942©1997 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Vienna, Austria