Print this pageSpatial and Temporal Analysis of Domestic Exploration Success
GRACE, JOHN D.
New field wildcat exploration in the US over the last 55 years has undergone major changes as a result of depletion of the resource base and improvements in exploration technology. In many provinces, these changes show distinct spatial and temporal trends.
Three key factors affecting exploration success are analyzed. First is how exploration success varies with distance from established production. Second is how the predominant trap type in a play or province affects this spatial relationship. The final factor is how success in general, and as a function of distance from production and trap type, have changed over the period of 1940 through 1993.
Two trends are identified in the changes in success ratios over time. The first is the increase in success ratios because of a reduction in the minimum size of economic fields. The second is the increase in success due to improvements in technology and geologic knowledge which allow identification of traps which were invisible earlier. In some areas, exploration success has declined, as depletion of the resource base has been too severe to be offset by technology or reduction in minimum field size.
Results for the major provinces of the onshore US (and state waters) are shown, with smaller provinces and plays included to illustrate the influence of trap type and other geologic factors on success ratios over the second half of the twentieth century.