Print this pageExploration Portfolio Optimization, Ghadames Basin, Algeria
DANIELS, ROBERT P.
Optimizing investment decisions from a portfolio of opportunities which have different risk/reward profiles is an important task for managing investments towards the attainment of corporate goals. Anadarko Algeria's portfolio is an excellent case of a successful exploratory effort leading to a significant inventory of concepts, leads, and prospects that all have very different risk/reward profiles. Long-term optimization of this portfolio of opportunities allow for better allocation of resources and capital and more efficient planning.
Twenty-six prospects and leads from three different plays in the Ghadames Basin, Algeria were quantified by maximum, minimum and most likely values for each geologic parameter related to oil in place and recoverable reserves. These data were entered into a Monte Carlo reserve estimate software program called REP which calculated probabilistic reserve distributions for each prospect. Risks were entered for each prospect to yield probabilistic risked reserve distributions. The prospect were then sorted first based on P50 chance of success and secondly on P50 reserves. These two scenarios were then consolidated in REP to determine the reserve distribution and the consolidated risk for each possible case. The prospects and lead portfolio was then iteratively optimized with the objective of accessing the largest percentage of the available reserve potential with the least amount of investment and risk. The optimized Ghadames Basin portfolio yielded exposure to 70% of the identified P50 reserve potential with one fewer exploratory well with no increase in risk, with similar results for the P10 and P90 cases.