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Abstract: Previous HitAnalysisNext Hit of the Petroleum Resources of the Norwegian Continental Shelf

Inger P. Fjaertoft, Erling Kvadsheim, Jan E. Kalheim, Pal Rullestad, Kristin Osen, Harald Brekke

The 1995 Previous HitanalysisNext Hit of the petroleum resources of Norway is based on a Previous HitplayNext Hit Previous HitanalysisNext Hit. The input to the 1995 Previous HitanalysisNext Hit is updated and refined compared with the Previous HitanalysisNext Hit of 1993.

The Previous HitanalysisNext Hit makes a major distinction between unconfirmed Previous HitplayNext Hit models and plays confirmed by discoveries. The unconfirmed plays have a higher risk and a greater range of uncertainty in the resource estimates compared to the confirmed plays. The effect of the unconfirmed plays on the estimates within different exploration areas is discussed. The unconfirmed Previous HitplayNext Hit models are an important aspect of the exploration in the new exploration areas north of 62°N.

The total estimate for the Norwegian Shelf is well within the estimate given in the 1993 Previous HitanalysisNext Hit, but there are some adjustments in the relative importance of the different exploration provinces.

Much emphasis is placed on incorporating historical exploration data and statistics to calibrate the Previous HitplayNext Hit models. This includes rate of success and field size distributions of the individual Previous HitplayNext Hit models and exploration provinces. Major confirmed plays in the North Sea have a rate of success of about 30% and show a good fit to a log normal field size distribution. Based on the Jog normal distribution it is possible to give prognosis for the size distribution of the undiscovered accumulations. This has made it possible to work out an economic Previous HitanalysisTop of the profitability of future exploration on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90956©1995 AAPG International Convention and Exposition Meeting, Nice, France