--> ABSTRACT: A History of the Evolution in Concepts in Risk Analysis, by Robert E. Megill; #91020 (1995).

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A History of the Evolution in Concepts in Risk Analysis

Robert E. Megill

No one knows the complete accurate history of the evolution of concepts on risk analysis. Too much of the history was confidential for too long. But slowly the most accepted ideas have begun to emerge. The USGS, slow to keep up-to-date at times, has helped by publishing its ideas and research on risking concepts. The AAPG has sponsored several seminars in which new ideas and techniques were presented.

Risk concepts have also evolved with new geologic concepts and scientific discoveries, e.g. maturation, vitrinite reflectance, burial depth as well as 3D seismic lines and "bright spots".

But the principal prompter of a rapid evolution was the advent of sealed bid sales with bonus bidding. When explorers asked for millions of dollars, management wanted to know more and more about the details, so a logical, more formal methodology had to be developed.

Faster computers also aided in the new risking. Today, numerous computer models can be acquired that adequately handle risking concepts in light of today's understanding of the geologic conditions.

AAPG's school entitled "Evaluating and Managing Risk" has been singularly instrumental in spreading the new methodology.

There is occasional retrogression, but, in general, the explorers of today and their coworkers do a better job of risking plays and prospects than in prior years. We should expect more evolving risk analysis concepts in the future. It's a dynamic field of inquiry.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91020©1995 AAPG Annual Convention, Houston, Texas, May 5-8, 1995