21st Century U.S. Energy Mix

Jack Edwards

U.S. production of conventional crude oil is forecast to continue to decline through the next 85 years to resource exhaustion in 2080 even with the addition to the 23BB of present reserves of 88BB (43BB reserve growth plus 45BB new discoveries). U.S. natural gas production will also reach effective depletion before the end of the 21st century. Present U.S. natural gas reserves are estimated by the USGS to be 339 TCF and future discoveries are estimated to be 293 TCF. Present annual production of 17 TCF will continue to decline even with aggressive gas exploration and development. This will occur in spite of an expanding market for the clean fuel, natural gas. Pipeline imports from Canada and LNG from overseas will keep U.S. gas consumption increasing until about 2030 when world gas production will begin its inevitable decline because of resource limits.

By 2100 the U.S. and world energy sources, in decreasing order of importance, will be nuclear, coal, tar sands, oil shales, solar, hydroelectric, wind, and geothermal power. Conventional oil and gas will no longer be in the energy mix.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91020©1995 AAPG Annual Convention, Houston, Texas, May 5-8, 1995