BARRON, ERIC J., Penn State University, University Park, PA

ABSTRACT: Climate Model Prediction of Petroleum Source Rocks

Increased knowledge of geographic changes through Earth history and substantial improvements in climate modeling capabilities present the opportunity to examine sedimentology and source rock distribution deductively.

The capability of physically-based climate models in source rock prediction is evaluated through four steps: (1) demonstration ofthe correlations between climate data and key variables of significance for organic productivity and preservation, (2) demonstration that present day models are capable of simulating these key variables, (3) illustration that climate predictions for past geographies yield conditions different from the present day (and unlikely to be predicted based on simple analogies) and, (4) verification of climate model predictions for different time periods by comparison with geologic data.

In studies for source rock prediction associated with upwelling and for lacustrine source rocks, the model studies have proven tobe highly successful, and suggest that climate models are ready for application in source rock prediction.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90987©1993 AAPG Annual Convention, New Orleans, Louisiana, April 25-28, 1993.