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A Mathematical Model to Predict Estimated Future Recoverables


Dwights has developed a mathematical model to analyze empirical rate-time production data. The objective of the analysis is to provide the industry with a reliable prediction of estimated future recoverables for all fields and reservoirs contained in the Dwights' Petroleum Data System (DPDS) file. The Dwights model has been developed to supply a consistent benchmark that is not intended to replace, but to be used in conjunction with, other detailed engineering and geological analyses. Additionally, the development of such a model will allow more careful consideration of the changing lifetime patterns of field and reservoir recoverables.

This paper presents the objectives of the Dwights model design. The Dwights model is designed to (1) characterize the monthly production of all wells in a field/reservoir into a typical well profile using pseudotime and normalized production, (2) select the most appropriate analytical decline solution for a typical well profile, and (3) determine the estimated future recoverables (EFRs) from the selected decline solution.

A case study of a single reservoir is presented to illustrate the technical procedures used by the Dwights model. The results from this model are compared with DOE/Energy Information Administration reserve estimates in order to substantiate the validity of the mathematical model.


AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91006 © 1991 GCAGS and GC-SEPM Meeting, Houston, Texas, October 16-18, 1991 (2009)