Knowledge-Based System for Source Rock Prediction

Michael L. Fowler

An important step in evaluating the petroleum potential of an unexplored basin is obtaining a reliable quantitative or semiquantitative estimate of the amounts and types of organic material preserved in its sediments. Commonly, the appropriate parts of the sedimentary section in frontier or unexplored basins have not yet been sampled by the drill, and means other than direct kerogen-type identification and measurement of organic carbon content are necessary for obtaining this information. In recent years, numerous investigators have taken part in describing, analyzing, and developing an understanding of the complex and interrelated roles played by the physical geographic and climatologic factors controlling formation, accumulation, and preservation of organic materials in modern sedimentary environments. A knowledge of these principles can be used to evaluate potential for organic preservation in sediments deposited in the geologic past, but that knowledge must be applied with adherence to the proper detailed interrelationships of paleogeographic and paleoclimatic factors.

The Source Rock Prediction System (SRPS)--a simple, microcomputer-implemented, knowledge-based system designed around a decision tree structure--provides a cost-effective technique for capturing this detailed information. This technology-transfer device allows a novice in evaluation of source rock depositional environments access to the experts' complex logic in predicting potential source rock quality in frontier basins using readily available paleogeographic and paleoclimatic data as input. The potential is great for applying similar knowledge-based systems to capture and transfer detailed expertise in many other petroleum-related activities.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91038©1987 AAPG Annual Convention, Los Angeles, California, June 7-10, 1987.