Fast Risking Basin Analysis (FRBA): Procedures, Methods and Case Studies

Rocha-Legorreta, Francisco, Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, Mexico

Integrated basin analysis was conducted using a state-of-the-art code developed for spread sheets, interfacing with a Monte Carlo risking add-in program with the purpose to perform a total uncertainty analysis that can be done with as many uncertain inputs as required and as many outputs of interest as needed without increasing the computer time involved. In the example the code serves to identify which parameters in the input (ranging from uncertain data for thermal history, permeability, fracture coefficients for rocks, geo­chemistry kinetics, kerogen amounts and types per formation, through to uncertain volu­metric factors) are causing the greatest contributions to the uncertainty in any of the select­ed outputs. Relative importance, relative contribution and relative sensitivity are examined to illustrate when individual parameters need to have their ranges of uncertainty narrowed in order to reduce the range of uncertainty of particular outputs. Relevant results revealed that there are quite different results due to the group of variables used are being influenced basically by the input data, the equation parameter and intrinsic assumptions.