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The Sun / Earth Climate System: A Geoscience Perspective*

By

Arthur R. Green1 

Search and Discovery Article #70014 (2005)

Posted May 19, 2005

 

*Adapted from 2004-2005 AAPG Distinguished Lecture; Funded by the AAPG Foundation through the J. Ben Carsey Endowment. Illustrations by Dolores Claxton. 

1Chief Geoscientist, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, TX, Retired; current address: Gig Harbor, WA ([email protected])

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uConclusions

uScientific methods

  uFigures 1-3 

uNewtonian/Darwinian views

  uClimate

uExternal mechanisms

  uFigures 4-12

  uItemization

  uComments

uInternal mechanisms

  uItemization

  uSubsurface

    uFigures 13-16

    uWhy a geoscientist

    uBasin systems

  uAtmosphere

    uFigures 17-25

    uClimate reconstruction

  uHydrosphere

    uFigures 26-30

    uRole of water

    uIsotopic indicators

      uFigures 31-35

    uIce age

  uClimate change & humans

    uFigures 37-44

  uLithosphere

uClimatology

  uCoupled behavior

  uFuture research

  uCCSP

    uFigures 47-49

  uGCEP

    uFigures 50-55

  uGreen market

    uFigures 56-67

uGeoscientist’s view

uSummary

uFigure 58

uReferences

 

 

 

 

Conclusions 

  • The Climate of Planet Earth is in a continuous state of either cooling or warming as the elegant sun-earth climate system equilibrates the surface temperature within a range of ~16o Centigrade.

  • We are currently living in a not-yet-completed interglacial stage and we are experiencing a minor warming trend. Glacial periods tend to have more rapid climate changes. In the last 15 thousand years, there have been two types of climate change -1) Moderate and gradual, 2) Major and abrupt.

  • The last decade of climate research has taught us what we do not know and has revealed that we are only at the beginning of the learning curve. "We do not understand the fundamentals of abrupt climate change well enough to predict them." (NRC Climate Change 2002).

  • The deep difficulty of conducting climate and global change research is that is requires the non-linear complex integration of a wide spectrum of the sciences - meteorology, physics, chemistry, geology, botany, biology, mathematics, and sophisticated computer modeling.

  • Climate is not weather - it is infinitely more complex.

 

Scientific Methods and Context 

Figures 1-3 

Figure 1. Covers of reports of the U.S. National Research Council Natural Academy of Science.

Figure 2. Covers of selected publications on space weather.

Figure 3. The Sun / Earth climate system: some basic parameters of the two, weather to climate, and equilibrium times of climate component subsystems (e.g., Cronin et al., 1993).

 

Reports of the U.S. National Research Council Natural Academy of Science (Figure 1)

  • Science for Decision-Making, Global Environmental Change

  • Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

  • Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science Strategy

  • Review of Integrated Science

  • The Atmospheric Sciences: Entering the Twenty-First Century.

 

The solar-terrestrial connections: Space weather--Selected publications (Figure 2)

  • Storms from the Sun, by Michael J. Carlowicz and Ramon E. Lopez

  • Space Weather, edited by Paul Song, Howard J. Singer, and George L. Siscoe

  • Solar Activity and Earth's Climate, by Rasmus E. Benestad

 

 

Toward a Synthesis of the Newtonian and Darwinian World Views 

Physicists seek simplicity in universal laws that create and control climate. Earth system scientists revel in complex interdependencies (Physics Today, October, 2002).

 

Physics                                                           

The more you look, the simpler it gets. 

Universal patterns, search for laws.                  

Predictive (chaos and quantum mechanics notwithstanding).

Central role for ideal systems (ideal gas, harmonic oscillator).

 

Ecology

The more you look, the more complex it gets.

Weak trends; reluctance to seek laws.

Mostly descriptive; explanatory.

Disdain for caricatures of nature / analogs.

 

“I have witnessed the dysfunctional consequences of this bimodal legacy," Dr. John Harte (particle physicist), Energy Resource Group, University of California, Berkeley.

 

To complicate the biomodal thinking of physicists and earth systems scientists, economists follow preferred economic models; geopoliticians and nations follow trends of perception; and the layman follows______?

 

Climate (Figure 3)

The word climate is derived from the Greek Klima or region of the earth's surface. A basic definition is:

 

CLIMATE is a broad composite of the average meteorological conditions of a geographic region, measured in terms of such things as temperature, rainfall, snowfall, ice cover, and winds over an extended period of time.

 

CLIMATE is also used to refer to the mean state of a planet or geographic regions, such as continents or oceans.

 

Major Climatic Forcing Mechanisms of the Sun - Earth Climate System

External Mechanisms 

Figures 4-12 

Figure 4. The sun (Courtesy NASA/TRACE).

Figure 5. Solar radiation. Sunspot number from 1610 to 1970 and solar total irradiance from 1600 to 2000 (upper right) (after Lean et al., 1995; Pang and Yau, 2002, with permission of American Geophysical Union). Total solar magnetic flux emanating from the sun from 1875 to 1990 (lower right) (from Lockwood et al., 1999, with permission of Nature -- http://www.nature.com/help/reprints_and_permissions/permit_form.html).

Figure 6. Geomagnetic storms and cloud formation ?. The Earth's magnetic diapole, geomagnetic storms, and cloud formation (left) (NASA). The Earth offset magnetic diapole (right) (after Campbell, 2003).

Figure 7. Solar connections.

Figure 8. Solar-terrestrial system: The Sun and Earth's magnetosphere. Artist concept of the solar-terrestrial system showing the active Sun and Earth's magnetosphere. 

Figure 9. Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?. Our Milky Way galaxy is similar to the spiral galaxy (NGC 1232) (after European Southern Observatory, 2003--Spiral Galaxy NGC 1232-VLTUTI+FOTSI; ESO PR Photo 37d/98[23 September 1998] © European Southern Observatory; used with permission).

Figure 10. Milankovitch cycles (left image, from Rumney, 1968).

Figure 11. Milankovitch cycles recorded in the Calatayud basin of Northeast Spain. Spectral analyses of proxy records in the depth and time domain reveal that the small-scale mudstone-carbonate cycles correspond to the astronomical 19-23 kyr precession cycles, whereas the large-scale cycles reflect the 400 kyr eccentricity cycle. (from Abdul Aziz, 2003).

Figure 12. Chicxulub and the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. Chicxulub impact event (from Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, 2003).

 

Itemization of External Mechanisms 

Solar radiation and galactic forcing - an emerging science

  Sunspot variation and irradiance changes - directly affects temperature

  Solar ultraviolet wavelength variability - affects ozone production and upper atmosphere winds

  Magnetic variation - affects rainfall and cloud cover, at least partially, through control of the earth's electrical field

  Celestial influence?

Earth's orbital changes - linear cycles within a non-linear system

  Eccentricity - rotation                   }

  Obliquity (tilt)                               } Milankovitch Cycles 19-23 K, 1 K & 100-400 K

  Precession of equinoxes               }

Asteroid impacts - creates dust clouds and tidal waves

  Aerosols - blockage of sun's radiation

  Extinction

The Moon

  Gravity deflections

  Earth and ocean tides - interaction with Coriolis force

  Biological rhythms

Solar Radiation and Galactic Forcing

  Sunspot variation and irradiance changes

  Solar ultraviolet wavelength variability

  Magnetic variation

  Celestial influence?

 

Comments on External Mechanisms (Figures 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12) 

The Sun (Figure 4)

The diameter of the sun is 864,000 miles. Hydrogen and helium compose 95% of it. Energy is generated by thermonuclear fusion that converts hydrogen to helium. Solar flairs hurl radiation and particles into space. The plasma temperature is about 1million degrees. Bright region "sun spots" have higher density of coronal gas than dark regions.

 

Solar radiation - an emerging science (Figure 5)

Sunspot variation and irradiance changes directly affect temperature.

 

Magnetic variation affects rainfall and cloud cover, at least partially, through control of the earth's electrical field (Figure 6).

 

Earth's orbital changes-linear cycles within a non-linear system (Figures 10 and 11).

  Eccentricity - changes in the shape of the orbit about the sun (100k-400k cycles).

  Obliquity - tilt of the Earth (23 1/2o) (41k cycle) (illustrated with major atmosphere patterns by George R. Rumney, 1968).

  Precession of equinoxes - the timing of the Earth's closest approach to the sun (19k-23k). 

 

Asteroid impacts (Figure 12)- creates dust clouds and tidal waves and faunal and floral extinctions. 

 

The moon - Earth tides and ocean currents.

Return to top.

 

Major climatic forcing mechanisms of the Sun - Earth climate system

Internal 

Itemization of Internal Mechanisms 

Subsurface atmosphere

Atmosphere - involved in every physical process of potential importance to abrupt climate change: temperature, humidity, cloudiness, wind.

  Albedo (reflectance) - the ratio of reflected to incident radiation from the sun.

    Atmosphere - water vapor is the largest greenhouse gas because it's molecules absorb along wavelengths.

    Earth surface (land-sea-ice)

  Circulation cells and patterns - rapidly propagate the influence of any climate forcing from once part of the globe to another.

  Gas composition – chemistry - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2), halocarbons, troposphereic nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide (CO), sulfate aerosols - city heat.

    Greenhouse warming gases

    Aerosols

  Ocean-terrestrial-atmosphere feedback

  Internal oscillation zones

Hydrosphere - water is fundamental to creating and regulating the earth's climate.

  Oceans - enormous heat capacity, to store and transfer heat in 3 dimensions.

  Thermohaline circulation - a major long term regulator of temperature - a switch?

  Internal dynamics (El Niño) - a 2-3 year heating event that sets weather patterns.

  Lakes - overturning, moisture, areal extent, outburst floods.

  River systems

  Subsurface aquifers - facilitates biological processes (respiration and photosynthesis), physical processes (erosion), and chemical processes (dissolution and chemical weathering).

  Carbon cycle

Biosphere - a key component in global biogeochemical cycling (storage and release) of carbon, nutrients and other chemicals that influence climate.

  Life forms (marine and terrestrial).

  Carbon dioxide (biological pump) cycle - stores and releases CO2.

  Methane - wetlands and animals.

  Forests - O2 and albedo.

  Anthropologic evolution - man, his works and products.

Cryosphere - polar ice is rare in the earth's history and generates a delicate climate system.

  Terrestrial - sea level and elevation changes, albedo feedback and yields fresh water

  Marine - ice-rifted debris, increases the planet's albedo, sea air exchange.

Lithosphere - 100 km thick layer above the aesthenosphere, mantle, and core - forms the earth's dynamic "plates."

  Plate tectonics - 8 major plates and 26 minor plates in dynamic interaction.

    Shape and distribution of continents and oceans / pathways - change current patterns and upwelling.

    Mountain building - orographic lift - monsoons - weather patterns and creates river drainages.

    Uplift and subsidence - equilibrates heat of the earth, forms sedimentary basins.

  Volcanism

    Gases - composition - greenhouse gases and aerosols.

    Ash clouds - albedo and mineral nutrients.

    Magma

    Topography and bathymetry

 

Subsurface Atmosphere (Figures 13-16) 

     Figures 13-16 

Figure 13. Non-linear interactions in a dynamic petroleum (fluid) system. Inset: Plot of sea level during the Phanerozoic (from P.R. Vail and R.M. Mitchum, 1979).

Figure 14. The self-organizing earth machine (Source: Harvard).

Figure 15. Late Jurassic - Early Cretaceous: Reconstruction of Late Jurassic paleogeography.

Figure 16. Walking in the subsurface world.

 

 

     Why a Geoscientist (Figure 13

The reductionist methods of breaking complex systems into simple parts has been partially successful in assessing risk. But it has left a vacuum when it comes to predicting complex fluid streams (oil and gas) in the subsurface realm. 

How do we use the information gleaned about the parts to build up a theory of the whole? The deep difficulty here lies in the fact that the complex whole may exhibit properties that are not readily explained by understanding the parts. The complex whole, in a completely nonmystical sense, can often exhibit collective properties, self organizing"emergent" features that are lawful in their own right. (Stuart Kauffman, e.g., 1995)

 

     Sedimentary basin systems--"Similarity to climate systems" (Figures 14, 15, and 16

  • The mental model of sedimentary basins envisioned here is that basins are complex, non-linear, self-organizing, dynamic natural systems. They are thrown in and out of thermodynamic and pressure equilibrium and experience obth positive and negative feedback as they attempt to maintain equilibrium throughout their unique evolution.

  • The fluids (oil-gas-water) are the most unstable and mobile parameters of sedimentary basin systems and are the major agents in self organization on the maintenance of equilibrium.

  • Petroleum exploration is the science and art of envisioning multiphase fluid and rock interactions envisioned through time in a high pressure and temperature environment of the subsurface atmosphere.

 

The Atmosphere (Figures 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25) 

     Figures 17-25  

Figure 17. Montage of aspects of the earth and its atmosphere (with data from Crowley and North, 1991). Obliquity and major atmosphere patterns (from Rumney, 1968, with permission of MacMillan Company), global image showing atmosphere patterns in Western Hemisphere and parts of Pacific and Atlantic oceans, pathways for mobile polar highs (MPH) and resulting trade wind circulation in the tropics (based on Leroux, 1993) (from Bryant, 1997, with permission of Cambridge University Press), and meridional cross-section of the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere in winter (from Barry and Chorley, 1968, with permision of Thomson Publishing Services).

Figure 18. Systems within systems. Diagram of the various elements and systems within the Sun - Earth climate system.

Figure 19. The Earth's temperature (after Hollander, 2003). A. Global surface air-temperatures (1880-2000) (after Hansen et al., 1999, with permission of Journal of Geophysical Research). B. Historical global temperature trends over the last 800,000 years. Temperatures were inferred from oxygen-isotope ratios in sea-floor fossil plankton, based on data from several studies (after Crowley, 1996, with permission of Consequences).

Figure 20. Climate reconstruction (after Esper et al., 2004, with permission of American Geophysical Union).

Figure 21. CO2 and temperature trends. A. Oil and Coal each account for about 40% of global fossil fuel emissions of CO2, and natural gas accounted for about 20%. B. According to measurements of atmospheric CO2, concentrations from Mauna Loa observatory, the average growth rate since 1955 is about 3 gigatons (billions of metric tons) for carbon per year. C. Global average surface temperatures are calculated from thousands of individual station measurements spread across the globe. Observations are more complete over land in the Northern Hemisphere and since 1940. D. Global average temperatures measured from satellites show little evidence of global warming from the late 1970s through 1997. An uptick in temperatures in 1998 was reversed in 1999. (ExxonMobil.)

Figure 22. The Asian Brown Cloud. Synoptic view of the Asian during The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX), left, for the SEAWIFS satellite. The three photographs on the right taken from the C-130 research aircraft show images of (a) the dense haze in the Arabian Sea, (b) the trade cumuli embedded in the haze, and (c) the pristine southern Indian Ocean. (Courtesy of N. Kuring, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Kuring, 2002).

Figure 23. Potential transcontinental nature of the "Haze." Forwarded trajectories from 700 mb, March 14-21, 1999. Trajectories are from India, China, Mexico, U.S. east and west coasts, London, Paris, and Berlin (Courtesy of T.N. Krishnamuri; Krishnamuri, 2002).

Figure 24. Coal bed fires of China's Ningxia Region (photo © Anupma Prakash [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska; Fairbanks], 2005).  The fires, which burn millions of tons of coal per year, spew nearly as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as do all the cars in the United States.

Figure 25. Population of selected Asian cities (population in millions) (data from Fuchs, R.J., et al., 1994). Range of annual averages of SO2 concentrations during 1980-84 period in µg/m3 (data from Graedel and Crutzen, 1993). (Compilation from UNEP, 2002.)

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     Climate Reconstruction 

Large-scale temperature reconstructions after millennial-scale variations have been removed by de-trending with a cubic smoothing spline with a 50% frequency-response cutoff width equal to 67% of the length of the common period (1000-1980): purple, Briffa (2000); blue, Mann et al (1999); red, Esper et al. (2002); green, Jones et al. (1998). The series are not smoothed to illustrate the full range of variability up to centennial scales. The inter-series correlations between all four reconstructions are 0.42 for non-smoothed data and 0.63 for 50-year smoothed data, both calculated over the 1000-1980 period. Inter-series correlations for each century (1901-1980 for the 20th century) remain fairly high and stable over time (numbers provided in brackets). The lowest correlation (0.27) occurs in the 11th century, despite the fact that the relative data overlap (e.g., Tornetraesk and Polar Urals tree ring data used in all reconstructions) is greatest during this early period. In boxes, the number of the northern hemisphere regional proxy records considered in the large-scale reconstructions are provided for 1900, 1500, and 1000 (colors as for the curves). Values in parentheses indicate numbers of tree ring records. For Mann et al. (1999), 112 in 1900 includes records from the southern hemisphere, and the numbers for 1500 and 1000 include principal components derived from 21 western and 6 southern U.S. tree sites that are counted as two regional records.

 

Hydrosphere  

    Figures 26-30  

Figure 26. Thermohaline circulation through time (Late Proterozoic to Present) (from Gerhard and Harrison, 2001). 

Click to view sequence of thermohaline circulation through time. 

Figure 27. Thermohaline current. A. A schematic of the ocean circulation system, often called the Great Ocean Conveyor, that transports heat throughout the world oceans. Red arrows indicate warm surface currents. Blue arrows indicate deep cold currents (from Gagosian, 2002). B. New data shows that North Atlantic waters at depths between 1000 and 4000 meters are becoming dramatically less salty, especially in the last decade. Red indicates saltier-than-normal waters. Blue indicates fresher waters. Oceanographers say we may be approaching a threshold that would shut down the Great Ocean Conveyor and cause abrupt climate changes (from Gagosian, 2002). C. Conceptualized climate system, representing the temperature in and around the North Atlantic Ocean as a function of fresh- water input to the northern North Atlantic. The upper branch (red) features strong deep circulation. Along the lower branch (blue), the circulation is collapsed. The modern climate, with its freshwater flux F, is on the upper branch, as shown in green. When the fresh water reaches a threshold (F + DF), the system flips rapidly to the lower, cold regime. Going back to the warm mode would require a greatly reduced freshwater input (F - DF'). This diagram is highly schematic; the exact position of the modern climate with respect to bifurcation points is largely unknown. Moreover, the shape (particularly the width (DF + DF') of the hysteresis loop depends on parameters that are external to the ocean-atmosphere system. (reprinted with permission from Edouard Bord, 2002, Climate shock: Abrupt changes over millennial time scales: Physics Today, December, Copyright 2002, American Institute of Physics).

Figure 28. Thermohaline fine structure in an oceanographic front from seismic refection profiling (from Holbrook et al., 2003, with permission of Science). A. Location of seismic lines in the Newfoundland Basin. Bold lines show portions of seismic lines shown in B and C. B. Bottom: Stacked seismic section of water column on line 1mcs. Image has a vertical exaggeration of 16. Vertical axis is two-way travel time (TWTT) in seconds; the base of the section at 6 s corresponds to a depth of ~4500 m in the ocean. Horizontal axis is in CMP; CMP spacing is 6.25 m. Box denotes portion of profile depicted in inset, which shows coherent "slabs" penetrating to ~1000 m depth. Top: Color-coded plot of stacking sound speed in the ocean, which is approximately equal to root-mean square sound speed. Cold colors correspond to low sound speed (minimum of ~1440 m/s); warm colors reflect higher sound speed (maximum of ~1530 m/s); boundary between blue and yellow is 1505 m/s. A plot of SST measured during the seismic survey is superimposed; the front between the LC and NAC is visible as an abrupt ~5°C increase in temperature at CMP 69500. C. Bottom: Stacked seismic section of water column on line 2mcs, plotted as in B, except with vertical exaggeration of 27. Box denotes portion of profile depicted in inset, which shows "slabs" losing coherency at depths of ~1000 m. Top: Stacking sound speed in the ocean, which is approximately equal to root-mean-square sound speed and SST, plotted as in B. The front is visible at CMP 229000.

Figure 29. Eustatic cycle chart No. 1 - Phanerozoic. (from Vail and Mitchum, 1979).

Figure 30. Sea level and coastal erosion satellite monitoring. A. Shoreline conditions along the U.S. East Coast. B. TOPEX/Poseidon measurement system (from JPL, 2004). Global sea level rise can be determined with considerable precision from the Topex/Poseidon satellite. C. Sea level data from the Topex/Poseidon satellite.

 

     Role of Water 

Water is fundamental to creating and regulating the Earth's climate.

  • Oceans - enormous heat capacity, to store and transfer heat in 3 dimensions - sea level cycles

  • Thermohaline circulation - a major long term regulator of global temperature - on-off switch ?

  • Internal dynamics (El Niño) - a 2-3 year heating event that sets weather patterns

  • Lakes - overturning, moisture, geographic extent, outburst floods

  • River systems - recycle water, carry nutrients to the sea and mixes

  • Subsurface aquifers - facilitates biological processes (respiration and photosynthesis), physical processes (erosion), and chemical processes (dissolution and chemical weathering)

  • Source-rock deposition and preservation

 

“How will Earth's climate respond to ongoing changes in greenhouse gases and ocean circulation? Answers about the future might be found in the past.” -- Edouard Bard  (Figure 26)

 

     Isotopic Climate Indicators (Figures 31, 32, 33, 34, and 35) 

Deep sea sediments provide the most stratigraphically complete and globally representative proxy records of paleoclimate change.

 

          Figures 31-35 

 

Figure 31. Isotopic climate indicators (after Lyle, 2002). A. Synthesis of magnetic stratigraphy from four Leg 199 drill sites. Depth scale in med is shown on the right of each column, and geographic coordinates are shown at the bottom of each column. Black = normal magnetic polarity, white = reversed magnetic polarity, gray = no polarity assignment possible. Crosses = intervals with no data, dashed lines = correlation between selected chrons to the GPTS (Cande and Kent, 1995). B. Compilation of benthic oxygen isotope data for the Cenozoic (Zachos et al., 2001). Also shown is the time window investigated during ODP Leg 199 and the position of three major events targeted by the leg. P/E = Paleocene / Eocene boundary and its associated thermal event. Oi-1 is approximately at the E/O boundary and marks the first major Antarctic glaciation. Mi-1 is near the O/M boundary and marks the beginning of the development of the Neogene cryosphere.

Figure 32. Climate recordings in the cryosphere. A. Top: Ice sheets reveal annual layers, which scientists can analyze to reconstruct the history of precipitation and air temperatures 100,000 years into the past. Bottom: Cores of seafloor sediments reveal the climate history of the ocean. (from Gagosian, 2002). B. The pattern of temperature change over the last 110,000 years as recorded by the 18O to 16O ratio in Greenland ice (Dansgaard et al., 1993). The absolute temperature range has been independently determined from the temperature profile measured in the borehole (Cuffey et al., 1994). C. Relative temperature and accumulation of snowfall plotted against age (thousands of years before the present) (after Cuffey and Clow, 1997; Alley et al., 1997, with permission of Geological Society of America). D. The most recently published data from the newest Greenland ice cores (Johnsen et al., 1992). Note the significantly greater resolution. Temperatures are interpreted from dD and 18O. At the height of the last glacial maximum approximately 18 Ka, temperatures were approximately 12-13oC cooler than present, a slightly more extreme difference than observed in the Antarctic cores. (After Kerr, 1993, with permission of Science.)

Figure 33. How solar cycles affect climate. A. Relative temperature and accumulation of snowfall plotted against age (thousands of years before the present) (after Cuffey and Clow, 1997; Alley et al., 1997, with permission of Geological Society of America). B. Top: Variations in solar radiation received at the top of Earth's atmosphere relative to present day in W/m2 as a function of time of year and for thousands of years in the past. Bottom: Changes in SST near the equator in the Eastern Pacific at 99°W, 0.4°S for times in the past as given, based on changes simulated in the CCSM relative to 1800 A.D. (From Trenberth and Otto-Bliesner, 2003, with permission of Science.)

Figure 34. Synchrony and climate change: Antarctic ice cores (from Petit et al., 1999, with permission of Nature--http://www.nature.com/help/reprints_and_permissions/permit_form.html).

Figure 35. Indian Ocean climate and monsoons: A. Oxygen-isotope ratios of a stalagmite, Socotra Island, along with plots, representing approximately 40,000 to 55,000 years before the present, from China and Greenland. B. Onset of interstadial 12 (~25 years), shown by d18O data from Socotra Island. (From Burns et al., 2003, with permission of Science.)

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     “Ice Age(Figure 36) 

“It is 12,500 years since the last ice age ended, which means the next one is long overdue. When the ice comes, most of northern America, Britain, and northern Europe will disappear under the glaciers. In this remarkable book, an eminent scientist presents his revolutionary theory on the cause of ice ages and warns that a new ice age may be near. 

“In conflict with the traditional view that ice ages build up gradually over thousands of years, Sir Fred Hoyle argues convincingly that the right conditions can arise within a single decade. His fascinating theory is supported with evidence drawn from geology, astronomy, evolution, and a study of unusual weather patterns. In showing that an ice age is imminent, he sets out what needs to be done urgently now to avoid this, the ultimate human catastrophe.” (Hoyle, 1981) 

 

Figure 36. Titles of two volumes regarding ice age--Ice, The Ultimate Human Catastrophe, by Sir Fred Hoyle, and Can Global Warming Trigger an ‘Ice Age’? by Robert B. Gagosian.

 

Climate Change and Human History/Migrations (Figures 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, and 44) 

     Figures 37-44 

Figure 37. Climate changes in Central Greenland over the last 17,000 years (Northern Hemisphere): Paleotemperatures and snowfall (after Cuffey and Clow, 1997; Alley et al., 1997, with permission of Geological Society of America).

Figure 38. Global climate (from Scotese, 2003) and generalized, basic global climate (lower left) (after Alley et al., 1997).

Figure 39. Recent African genesis of humans (from Cann and Wilson, 2003, with permission of Scientific American).

Figure 40. Climate and sea level change, 9,900 YBP (from Plagnes et al., 2003, with permission of Quaternary Research, Elsevier B.V.).

Figure 41. Trends in net primary productivity (NPP), 1982-1998 (gCm-2yr-2) (after Hicke et al., 2002, with permission of American Geophysical Union).

Figure 42. Malaspina Glacier, showing decreasing size.

Figure 43. Map showing the Pacific Jet Stream on February 13, 1999, during La Niña Phase. The Jet Stream entry point was above Vancouver and the sharp bend over the Great Lakes region coincided with a cold front. Temperatures at ground level were coldest on the north side of the Jet stream and warmer on the south side. (After Unisys Weather, 1999.)

Figure 44. A. Map showing typical temperature anomalies during December, January, and February of nine El Niño phases, 1947-1987. Temperatures were warmer than normal in the north central (Great Lakes) region and colder than normal in the southwestern and southeastern U.S. (From NOAA--http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nin/gif/fst-temp-us-big.gif; Sittel, 1994.) B. Map showing typical temperature anomalies during December, January, and February of twelve El Niña phases, 1947-1987. Temperatures were colder than normal in the northwestern U.S. and warmer than normal in the central and southeastern U.S. during these La Niña events. (From Sittel, 1994;  http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/research/matt/maxtdjf.dv.gif.)

 

Lithosphere (Figure 45) 

Lithosphere is a 100-km-thick layer above the aesthenosphere, mantle, and core. It forms the Earth's dynamic plates

Plate Tectonics - 8 major plates and 26 minor plates in dynamic interaction

  • Shape and distribution of continents and oceans - change current patterns and upwelling - spreading rifts.

  • Mountain building - orographic lift - monsoons - weather patterns and creates river drainages.

  • Uplift and subsidence - equilibrates heat of the earth, forms sedimentary basins.

Volcanism - interaction of the earth's interior with the atmosphere

  • Gases - composition - greenhouse gases.

  • Ash clouds - albedo and mineral nutrients.

  • Magma - minerals, heat, nutrients and topography.

  • Topography and bathymetry - seafloor spreading ridges, large igneous provinces (LIPS), and mountain ranges with glaciers, ocean current pathways.

 

Figure 45. Dynamics of planet earth; planetary - terrestrial - marine factors.

 

 

Climatology - A Developing "Science" (Figure 46) 

Climate science is developing rapidly - we are in the steep part of the learning curve. Climate change science must integrate atmospheric science with the other physical sciences.

 

Figure 46. Complexity of climatology, with its interacting mechanisms.

 

Coupled Behavior and Feedback 

  • The interacting mechanisms can exhibit collective, non-linear properties "emergent" features that are lawful in their own right.

  • The search for predictable properties of hybrid forces is emerging as a fundamental research strategy in climate research.

 

Future Research Areas 

Processes

  • Ocean circulation - deep and global

  • Sea-ice transport and processes

  • Land-ice behavior - conditions beneath ice sheets

  • The hydrological cycle - storage, runoff and permafrost

  • Modes of atmospheric behavior - cloud formation

  • The sun's irradiance variability

  • Develop additional proxies of paleoclimates - (isotopes & biologic)

Advanced Modeling

  • To model complex, non-linear interacting processes

  • Fully coupled whole earth system models - to generate scenarios of abrupt climate change with high spatial and temporal resolution for tracking

  • Advanced statistical methods to model to understand thresholds and non-linear ties in geophysical, ecological and economic systems

Tools

  • Enhanced computational resources for modeling

  • New satellite data for mapping temperature, detailed bathymetry, uplift-subsidence and eustatic sea level

  • A grid of earth measuring stations for better geographic coverage and temporal resolution - EarthScope, Nanno / reporting stations

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Climate Change Science Program (Figures 47, 48, and 49) 

     Figures 47-49 

Figure 47. Cover of a report by the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, July 2003: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program--Vision for the program and highlights of the scientific strategic plan.

Figure 48. Guiding vision for the CCSP: A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems.

Figure 49. Climate science and technology management structure (Mahoney, 2002).

 

Global Climate and Energy Project (Figures 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, and 55) 

“Our investment in GCEP is a demonstration of our long-held belief that successful development and global deployment of innovative, commercially viable technology is the only path that can address long-term climate change risks while preserving and promoting prosperity of the world's economies. ExxonMobil is proud to work with a university of the reputation, experience, and ability of Stanford, and to be among the select group of sponsors coming together to make this project happen.” (Lee Raymond, ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO.) 

“There is much to do, but there is much that can be done, and the time to start is now.” (Professor Franklin [Lynn] Orr, GCEP Project Director.)

 

     Figures 50-55 

Figure 50. GCEP (Global Climate & Energy Project), Stanford University (www.gcep.stanford.edu)

Figure 51. World population and light pollution.

Figure 52. Global imaging / vegetation types (from Ramankutty and Foley, 1999, with permission of American Geophysical Union).

Figure 53. Global cropland area (from Ramankutty and Foley, 1999, with permission of American Geophysical Union).

Figure 54. Projected annual renewable water supply per person by river basin, 2025 (after Johnston et al., 2001, with permission of Science) (World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.).

Figure 55. A dry winter: The snow drought's wide reach.

 

Green Market and Environmental Crisis (Figures 56 and 57) 

As emissions rise. . ., a new market is born. It shows industry moving on global warming. Even as Bush opposes Kyoto, firms are trading rights to emit greenhouse gases. (Jeffrey Ball, The Wall Street Journal, January, 2003.)

 

     Figures 56-57 

Figure 56. Plot of world carbon-dioxide emissions, in billions of metric tons of carbon equivalent (left). Plot of world volume of greenhouse-gas emission credits traded, in millions of metric tons of CO2 equivalent (right).  

Figure 57. Cover of book, The Real Environmental Crisis: Why poverty, not affluence, is the environment's number one enemy, by Jack M. Hollander (Professor Emeritus of energy and Resources, University of California, Berkeley), 2003.

 

A Geoscientist's View+ 

Some people, NGO's, politicians and some environmental scientists, genuinely subscribe to a gloomy picture of the Earth's future. Many of these scientists are not uninformed, nor naive, or unprofessional, or captive to special interests; but they have indeed moved into a pessimistic sphere that generates an environment of righteousness, elitism, environmental orthodoxy, and a view of "science" that aims at forgone conclusions and the need forever-increasing research grants. 

The last decade has seen a rapid advancement of the climate sciences. The intellectual stream of thought from Data -> Information -> Knowledge -> Integration -> Wisdom has experienced step function advancements at many levels since the early 1990's. State-of-the-Art science for decision-making is critical for global environmental care and economic prosperity.  

I am optimistic about the Earth's environmental future, and I believe there is plenty of evidence to support an optimistic, though not cornucopian, view of our planet's environmental future. 

If one believes that affluence fosters environmentalism, then the essential prerequisites for our earth's environmental future are a global transition from poverty to affluence coupled with transition to freedom and democracy and the growth of scientific knowledge. 

(+After Dr. Jack M. Hollander, 2003)

Summary 

  • Climate science is developing rapidly - we are in the steep part of the learning curve. Climate change science must integrate atmospheric science with the other pertinent scientific disciplines.

  • We do not yet understand the complex processes of climate system well enough to construct rigorous models of future climate change.

  • The continents and oceans are being systematically "wired" with broadband communications, sensors and satellites that are recording vast amounts of global data and information.

  • The massive data sets and rapidly evolving concepts of climate change will spark public debate at an increasing rate.

  • Mutual respect and honest debate are critical to the advancement of the science.

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Figure 58

Figure 58. The habitable blue planet: Coming home (photographed by Thomas P. Stafford, Commander, Apollo X).

 

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