--> A Commercial Examination of Canadian Unconventional Play Development

AAPG ACE 2018

Datapages, Inc.Print this page

A Commercial Examination of Canadian Unconventional Play Development

Abstract

The Montney and the Duvernay are two of Canada's most active unconventional plays. With remaining commercial values of US$53 billion and US$6 billion respectively, we expect these two areas to attract the majority of interest and new development in Canada going forward.

To develop these commercial values, we use real well data from development wells from a variety of operators in a true "bottom up" approach. Using boundaries that are set using geological and production trends, we separate the Montney and the Duvernay into fourteen and seven respective "sub-play" areas. Examining the most recent well production and completion data, we construct bespoke type curves for each sub-play in order to capture the differences between each area. These differences include but are not limited to IP rates, liquid and gas yield, decline curves, and well spacing assumptions. Using these bespoke models, we also examine active operators in each sub-play area to build a development forecast for each separate sub-play. Once this development forecast is built, we use this forecast to benchmark and compare a variety of different economic metrics as well as forecast the demand for externalities such as drilling or completion rigs, water, and proppant.

This presentation will use these metrics to perform in-depth comparisons between Canadian unconventional plays, including but not limited to the Montney and the Duvernay. We will examine differences between each respective play and show how these differences impact economics and ultimate competiveness and commerciality of the play, both in a domestic and international context. Comparisons with notable US plays such as the Permian and Eagle Ford will also be discussed. Further, drilling and completions trends such as lateral length, proppant load, and number of frac stages will be compared over time between plays and operators.

The conclusions from this work are meant to act as a guide as to which areas are most economic for development and to summarize relevant commercial activities for business intelligence or potential investment decisions.