--> A New Tight Oil Recoverable Resources Assessment Method Based on Multiple Regression Analysis

AAPG ACE 2018

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A New Tight Oil Recoverable Resources Assessment Method Based on Multiple Regression Analysis

Abstract

Due to the special accumulation characteristics of unconventional oil and gas, conventional resource evaluation methods can hardly obtain reliable recoverable resources of tight oil. In this paper, a new method for evaluating the recoverable oil resources in the Permian Basin is presented based on the multiple regression analysis, and the Member B12 of Wolfcamp Formation in the productive tight oil play of North America is taken as an example. Through the cross plot and correlation analysis, we can get the relationship between the geological parameters and the actual production respectively. According the relationship, we established the relation method to appraisal the tight oil recoverable resources. Then, the main influential geological parameters could be determined by correlation analysis and the influence coefficients are fitted by multiple regression. Hence, we get the calculation model of tight oil recoverable resources abundance in the study area, and also the tight oil recoverable resources of the study area can be calculated. After the detailed example analysis of Zone SJ in the Permian Basin, the results show that the total recoverable tight oil resources is 0.383 billion barrel, and the geological factors affecting the tight oil recoverable resources from large to small is as follows: brittle mineral content, maturity, porosity and oil saturation. The correlation coefficient of stimulated yield by prediction model and the actual yield is 0.7885, which reveals that the model is relative reliable. At the same time, due to the correspondence between the tight oil regression evaluation model and the production, we can also set the constraints of the production, and therefore the recoverable resources in different degrees can be obtained under these conditions. It will make the resources evaluation results more effectively, and also the application range is more extensive. In addition, the results of this paper can be used for optimizing tight oil play, which could be more effective in the potential basin.