--> Non-Saline Water Use and Oilsands Development, Past, Present and Future

AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition

Datapages, Inc.Print this page

Non-Saline Water Use and Oilsands Development, Past, Present and Future

Abstract

Oil sands production in 2014 accounted for 73% of total oil production in Alberta, and is expected to account for 86% of that production by 2024. Extraction of hydrocarbons from Alberta's oilsands relies heavily upon non-saline water. Water is largely used in processing oil sands ore, and generating steam for in situ oil sands extraction. When compared to other upstream oil and gas development types, the largest user of non-saline water in Alberta is the oil sands mining sector. Use of non-saline water for in-situ oil sands extraction represents the second largest use of non-saline water between 2009 and 2013 and the third largest use of non-saline water between 2004 and 2008. Continued growth in oil sands mining and in-situ oil sands production has meant that non-saline water use has increased over time in response to increases in production in these oil sands areas. Our assessment of non-saline water use yielded results that show increases in oil-sands related water use between 2004 and 2013 can be correlated to increases in oil sands production, but not necessarily linearly. One of the reasons is the shift in how the oil sands are being developed. Since 2012, production of bitumen from in-situ oil sands operations has exceeded that from mining. Water use intensity per barrel of oil produced using in situ means is lower than that for mining. This means that overall water use intensity per barrel of oil produced from Alberta's oil sands is decreasing over time. Production from in-situ means is forecast to continue to exceed mined production, further contributing to declines in water use intensity. However, overall production from the oil sands is expected to increase from approximately 2.3 million barrels per day in 2014 to approximately 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day in 2024 depending on growth scenarios. Oil sands production growth scenarios, and by extension water use, are dependent on long term forecasts of commodity prices which affect project economics. These commodity prices are in turn affected by estimates of supply and demand for the commodity. Currently approximately 81% of Alberta's production of oil is exported, with most of that exported to the United States. Given the expected oil sands production growth scenarios and estimates of Canadian and international demand for oil sands derived hydrocarbons it is possible to begin to estimate water use scenarios for oil sands development for the 2015 to 2030 time period and potentially beyond.