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Beyond the Blue Horizon—A View From Two Perspectives

Abstract

What does it take to be a successful exploration company, and carry the burden of being responsible for ‘moving the chains of energy progress’ forever forward? This paper examines that challenge through two very different lenses of historic perspective of the sub-surface; firstly some psychological characteristics and perceptions applicable to successful oil and gas explorers, and secondly, through a more tangible review of physical game-changing technologies that affect breakthroughs. Stepping aside from our industry, 3 examples are provided from recent history where the prediction of the present day state (their future) can be shown to have been erroneous due to (i) the inability to think beyond the boundary conditions of the time, (ii) being unable to recognize the rate of progress and applicability of existing technologies, and (iii) stubbornness in assimilating the breakthroughs of others so that deployment value of the technology is minimalized in light of competition. A review of familiar technologies available fifty years ago, in 1965, provides food for thought as to whether we would ever have predicted the nature of their 2015 counterparts. Moving to our industry and particularly Upstream Exploration related technologies, discussion focuses on those that are currently creating considerable change in both the accuracy of detection and observation of petroleum systems, and thus actually change the risk profile of plays and prospects before drilling. Gravity gradiometry and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs or ‘drones’) are used as examples of deployable hardware technologies that are changing the game in multiple Upstream arenas. The other definition of technology, ‘the application of scientific thinking to industrial objectives’ (i.e. not the gadgetry and gizmos) is investigated through a few examples (not ‘Unconventionals’) where paradigm shifts in thinking and challenges to the conventional wisdom, have moved the discovery of hydrocarbons and our perception of what is possible, to new heights. On this basis of past and current experiences, the key to keeping ‘the powerhouse’ fuelled well into the future, lies in achieving the best marriage of ideas and technology with the justification foresight to overwhelm the pessimists. If we can continue to deliver this potent combination of insightful perception and increased observational resolution in our data, we are indeed well placed to continue to move ‘beyond the blue horizon’ for many decades to come.