M. King Hubbert and “Peak Oil”: How do His Forecasts Look in 2015?

Abstract

Marion King Hubbert generated prescient and unwelcome forecasts in 1956 and again in 1962, that annual U. S. crude oil production would peak in the late 1960s or early 1970s at around 3 billion bbl, and decline thereafter, implying growing American dependence on imported oil. Hubbert estimated that ultimate domestic crude oil production would total about 200 billion bbl. These forecasts brought him into sharp conflict with the U. S. Geological Survey's Vincent E. McKelvey throughout the 1960s, and continuing well into the 1970s, even after McKelvey became Director of USGS in 1971. Under McKelvey's leadership, USGS had consistently estimated that domestic crude oil resources were much larger than Hubbert's forecasts – as much as 590 billion bbl – sufficient “to meet projected consumption through and beyond” the end of the 20th century. Their increasingly acrimonious dispute reached out well beyond the American scientific community, and spilled over into National energy policy. When U. S. crude oil production peaked in 1970 at about 3.2 billion bbl, Hubbert's bold forecast seemed to be confirmed, and he was hailed as a prophet. McKelvey was fired in 1977 by the incoming Carter administration, and Hubbert's forecasts were used as a basis to deny government subsidies to domestic E&P companies (“if the resource endowment is not there, it's not worth paying companies to try and look for it”), and to develop alternative domestic energy sources, including oil shale deposits. Hubbert then developed analogous estimates of future domestic natural gas production, as well as global crude oil production. He forecast that U. S. natural gas production would peak in 1975, at about 18 trillion ft3 per year, with a total production of about 1,050 TCF. Hubbert also predicted that global oil production would peak at an annual rate of about 40 billion bbl in about 1995, with ultimate production of about 2000 billion bbl. These forecasts have long since been eclipsed by actual production, and discovered reserves. Examined from the vantage point of nearly 40 years, all of Hubbert's forecasts are clearly too pessimistic, primarily because he failed to anticipate that technological breakthroughs would make E&P in hostile environments possible, and that new drilling and stimulation technologies would allow reservoirs to be developed in rocks then thought to be incapable of production.

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90216 ©2015 AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Denver, CO., May 31 - June 3, 2015