A Fresh Look at Unconventional Analogues

Abstract

Analogue models are a critical tool for screening unconventional exploration plays. Being able to identify the Lower 48 Eagle Ford as a strong analogy for the Vaca Muerta shale in Argentina was one of the reasons the Argentine tight oil play has realised significant exploration investment to date. In general terms though, a lack of physical drilling outside of the US has limited the quantity of primary data collected for onshore shale assets. As a result, explorers, investors, and researchers have had to rely on other methods of play evaluation. Fortunately though, many exploratory shale plays have been logged, measured, and cored historically as operators targeted adjacent conventional zones. This data can be mined relatively well, so it is usually possible to get a good starting point. In order to advance improve the analysis of prospective assets, Wood Mackenzie has constructed an analogue model with desktop data. The model pairs non-producing targets with the world's most productive, well-understood shale plays. Similar work to this has clearly been performed already, but much of it relies on subjective comparisons of less than 10 variables. Our model is quantitative, thorough, and unbiased. We use a proprietary database of over 1,700 data points and 74 variables to compute an analogue index (AI) for each play and then present multiple “ match” plays for each unknown “target” play we have studied. Examples of variables included in Wood Mackenzie's model that are not always used in other screening tools include basin configuration, facies classification, and the quality of natural fracture barriers. Outcomes from the model challenge some of the generally accepted analogues to date, giving a fresh perspective on some exploration plays. For example, the La Luna Shale in Colombia has been likened to the Eagle Ford and Bakken, but we believe La Luna wells could actually perform more like completions in the oil window of the Utica. This has large implications for explorers in many plays; the Middle Magdalena Valley Basin is just one example.

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90216 ©2015 AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Denver, CO., May 31 - June 3, 2015