We developed probabilistic sediment routing-mass balance workflows for exploration-scale ranking of reservoir presence and quality in data-limited, frontier basins. The temporal and spatial distribution of sediment supply is predicted from detrital zircon provenance analysis and geologic scaling relationships. A proof-of-concept test of workflows was conducted for the Paleogene Wilcox trend, Gulf of Mexico. Results indicate significant remaining exploration potential, with unaccounted sediment supply from Mexican source areas. These workflows can be integrated with existing good practices and risk assessment for robust predictions in frontier exploration.