Results of the U.S. Geological Survey Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (Cara)

Donald L. Gautier
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA.

One of the greatest uncertainties to future oil and gas supply and a subject of international concern is the volume of petroleum yet to be found in the Arctic. Most onshore areas have been at least partially explored, but the vast continental shelves that cover one third of the Arctic are largely undrilled. Using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle and concluded that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil may be found there, mostly offshore under less than 500m of water. Billion BOE-plus accumulations are predicted at a 50% probability in eleven CARA assessment units in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Russia. On a BOE basis, undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is largely concentrated in Russian territory. Undiscovered oil resources, while critically important to the interests of the Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient to significantly shift the current geographic patterns of world oil production.

AAPG Search and Discover Article #90096©2009 AAPG 3-P Arctic Conference and Exhibition, Moscow, Russia