Remaining Oil Resources of New Mexico: The Hubbert Curve Denied

Ronald Broadhead
New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

New Mexico has produced 5.5 billion bbls oil since production began in the 1920's. During 2006, 60 million bbls oil were produced. Available estimates of remaining resources indicate 1.4 billion bbls, 23 years at present rates of production; 60% of the estimated resource base is in proved reserves and the other 40% is in undiscovered resources.

The oil Reserve Life Index (the ratio of proved reserves to annual production) has been stable for the past two decades at approximately 10 years. The stability of this index indicates that new, previously unrecognized resources have been discovered and brought into production at a rate that replaced production. The volume of unproven oil resources has been, and continues to be, chronically underestimated.

Peak New Mexico oil production was attained in 1969 at 129 million bbls/year. From 1970 until 1982, an annual Hubbert-type decline of approximately 5% ensued. After 1982, oil production deviated positively from a Hubbert-type decline. Approximately twice the oil is currently produced than would have been predicted from application of a Hubbert curve in 1982. Positive deviation from a Hubbert-type decline has been caused mostly by waterflood of the Vacuum San Andres field during the 1980's, redevelopment of the Dagger Draw Upper Pennsylvanian field in the early to mid-1990's and discovery of the Brushy Canyon fields and trends in the late 1980's and early 1990's. These events brought into production major oil resources that had previously been either neglected or unrecognized.

The remaining New Mexico oil resource base is not mostly in known reserves in oil fields. Rather, the deviation from a Hubbert decline indicates it occurs as unrecognized sources that will only be found and produced through application of new and sophisticated exploration and development concepts and techniques and ultimately, drilling. Without exploration based on new concepts and application of sophisticated development techniques, new resources of oil will remain unrecognized and production will resume a Hubbert-type decline.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90092©2009 AAPG Rocky Mountain Section, July 9-11, 2008, Denver, Colorado