Pre-Salt Structures in Offshore Southeast Brazil: Risk and Sensitivity Modeling of Critical Factors for Economic Feasibility

Jason Carneiro, Fábio O. Andrade, Félix T. Gonçalves, Giuseppe Bacoccoli, Flávio L. Fernandes, and Ricardo P. Bedregal
PGT - Petroleum Geoscience Technology, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Brazilian Campos, Santos and Espirito Santo basins are well known for their oil and gas production and potential, which have been derives from their post-salt reservoirs, mainly turbidites. Technology evolution and the increasing demand for gas in Brazil have led the cutting edge of oil and gas exploration to the light oil and gas bearing pre-salt structures. In the coming years, multi-billion dollar budgets will certainly be invested in exploration programs focused in such a new play, in order to respond to those circumstances. Current commodity prices and promised in-place volumes pose very large prizes for the companies willing to take the risks, as diverse in nature as they may be - geologic, operational, economic, and regulatory. Qualifying and quantifying those risks is of uttermost importance in order to secure both projects’ and companies’ health. Based on information and data available, a Monte Carlo simulation model was built, able to deal with the uncertainties and risks related to this kind of endeavor. Sensibility analysis had been run on the results so critical factors were identified, and their influence over the final economic feasibility of the potential opportunities, quantified. The model was then applied to basins in offshore southeast Brazil. As a result, a set of minimum goals, e.g. prospect area, were detected, varying with expected net pays, fluid types, available infrastructure, reservoir properties. Establishing those goals beforehand may prevent companies choosing areas which would turn out to be less effective as business options. This knowledge also permits to optimize exploration investments, such as seismic acquisition and wildcat drilling.

AAPG Search and Discover Article #90078©2008 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas