The Canadian Energy Future in the Context of North America

Roland R. George and Jim Davidson
Board Member, National Energy Board, Calgary, AB, Canada

The National Energy Board is the independent Canadian agency that regulates most aspects of the energy industry under federal jurisdiction. Part of its mandate is to monitor, inform and advise on energy issues. In this role, it undertakes its Energy Futures initiative which results in a long term assessment of energy demand and supply in Canada. The resulting report is an "all energy" market analysis and outlook. One of the unique aspects of the Energy Futures initiative is that the NEB, as an independent agency, meets repeatedly with all the stakeholders with an interest on the interrelationships between the economy, the energy sector and the environment and goes through several rounds of consultation to capture the most current thinking on energy matters.

First a reference case is developed (2005-2015) and then three scenarios are developed to discuss the implications of the plausible envelop of possible future outcomes (horizon 2030). The Reference Case is based on established trends and known developments. The Triple E Scenario is based on international cooperation, an emphasis on balanced development and low energy prices. The Fortified Islands Scenario has an emphasis on energy security in an increasingly uncertain world with higher prices.

For purposes of this presentation, there will be a focus on natural gas. Canadian gas production, the supply/demand situation, trends in gas exiting from Western Canada, potential other gas supply sources and the implications for North American gas flow dynamics and trade. The presentation will also discuss current and likely future Canadian energy policy and regulatory responses given the accelerating rate of change in the natural gas industry.

AAPG Search and Discover Article #90078©2008 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas