Testing the Conspiracy Theory: Estimating Ghawar's Decline Rate from Monitoring Oil Field-Induced Subsidence in Saudi Arabia Using Satellite-Based Radarinterferometry

Neil A. McMahon¹, Lutz Petrat², and Ute Gangkofner^2
1Global Integrated Oils Research, Sanford C. Bernstein, London, United Kingdom
²GeoVille Information Systems GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria

The greatest controversy in the petroleum industry today is the concept of "peak oil", and the conspiracy theory surrounding Saudi Arabian field decline rates and remaining reserves. Despite the global interest in this issue, there is very limited actual production data on a field by field basis from Saudi, or indeed current geoscience or engineering data available in the public domain. However, by using innovative satellite remote sensing data and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis, we have attempted to understand what is currently occurring at the largest oil field on the planet, and we provide an interpretation of our results in this work.

By utilizing the latest remote sensing monitoring technique of radarinterferometry using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from ASAR satellite sensor mounted on ESA’s ENVISAT satellite, we present a time series of ground subsidence monitoring over the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, from 2003 to 2007, associated with oil field activity. This technique has been successfully trialled over the Burghan field in Kuwait (Petrat, L., A. Al-Enezi, 2006), prior to the recent period of extensive drilling in OPEC countries. Surface movements have been determined using SAR data by the application of the Differential Interferometric SAR (DInSAR) approach. The results, along with visible time-lapse satellite images over the field showing drilling locations, have been integrated into a GIS for further analysis and interpretation, in combination with information about the reservoir.

AAPG Search and Discover Article #90078©2008 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas