--> Abstract: Integrating Multiple Data Sources to Reduce Uncertainty in the Conceptual Site Model, by Van Price, Tom Temples, and Thomas J. Nicholson; #90078 (2008)

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Integrating Multiple Data Sources to Reduce Uncertainty in the Conceptual Site Model

Van Price1, Tom Temples1, and Thomas J. Nicholson2
1Advanced Environmental Solutions, LLC, Lexington, SC
2US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD

This paper will focus on uncertainties in the underlying conceptual framework on which all subsequent steps in a modeling effort depend. Every serious modeler recognizes the value of selecting an optimal from several competing site models, but the process of developing alternative models is sometimes hampered by poor access to site data, and relevant nearby data. We will present case histories based on reported flow or transport modeling in which alternative site models are suggested or allowed by data that were not available to or not used by the modeler. We like a quote from Tukey (1962) that we believe places in perspective many issues in attempting to produce mathematical models and computer simulations of natural systems. “Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than the exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise.”

Case histories are selected to provide food for thought for those attempting to approach model uncertainty and may include:
1. Charleston Navy site where seismic characterization data allowed significant revision of the CSM and subsequent contaminant transport modeling.
2. Hanford 300 area where river water momentum is suggested as an alternative component of the site model.
3. Savannah River C-Area where a characterization report for a waste site within the modeled area was not available to the modelers, but would have required changes to the underlying geologic and hydrogeologic models used.
4. Amargosa Desert Research Site (USGS) where re-interpretation of resistivity sounding data and water level data suggested an alternative geologic model. Simple 2-D spreadsheet modeling with the revised CSM provided an improved match to vapor-phase tritium migration.

 

AAPG Search and Discover Article #90078©2008 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas