Climate Signals and Clean Meteorological Data: Key Elements to Consider in Assessing the Local Impact of Global Climate Trends

David Streit, Matt Rogers, and Cynthia Dacre
MDA Federal Inc, Rockville, MD

The effect of climate change on facilities is a concern because of global warming fears and potential related effects on tropical activity. However, other large-scale factors, like the well-documented Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the well-researched tropical Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contribute significantly to impacts on facilities. Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its affect on petroleum facilities will depend on localized climatic conditions. Therefore, before assessment of climate change impact, it is necessary to review historical weather data in light of AMO and ENSO, as well as historical data collection practices.

AMO is an ongoing series of 20 to 40 year phases of change in sea-surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean. It may either obscure or exaggerate the global increase in temperatures due to human-induced global warming. Data show that the Atlantic is currently in a positive, warm phase.

Another key part of the proper assessment of regional and local climate change is using a robust weather data set. Improvements in meteorological data measurement/collection, shrinking of modeling grid spacing, advances in long-term climate modeling, and sophisticated enhancements of historical data sets have improved data for weather risk identification. New risk mitigation tools like the development of weather derivatives has triggered more sophisticated data analyses such as present-value adjustments and data discontinuity identification. The availability of clean and reliable climate data offers a more accurate assessment of future climate risk potential (storm, temperature, and precipitation data).

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90078©2008 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas