--> Abstract: Visualizing Uncertainty in Carbonate Reservoir Models with Semiotics and Information Systems: Examples from Outcrop and Core Studies, by William Parcell; #90078 (2008)

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Visualizing Uncertainty in Carbonate Reservoir Models with Semiotics and Information Systems: Examples from Outcrop and Core Studies

William Parcell
Department of Geology, Wichita State University, Wichita, KS

Information systems and semiotic theory and are used to communicate cognitive and conceptual uncertainties in carbonate reservoir models. These methods are demonstrated through analysis of outcrop and subsurface databases from Alabama, Wyoming and Montana.

Uncertainty management and risk assessment are primary components of the hydrocarbon exploration and production process. While understanding types of uncertainty and how they propagate up levels of inference is essential to building any geologic reservoir model, carbonate units have proved to be one of the most difficult reservoirs to predict and model in large part due to the complex interweaving of empirical, cognitive and conceptual uncertainties. To date most geologic reservoir characterization models have been based on rock and well log descriptions and interpretations resulting in implications for reservoir quality. However, cognitive and conceptual uncertainties, which develop in the creation of these models, are usually inadequately communicated and visualized.

Uncertainty in knowledge is derived from problems in recognizing objects and judgments of inferred relevance to a larger interpretation. A final measure of certainty in interpretation is derived from the product of the “confidence factor” of a measurement and the “relevance factor” of that object to an interpretation. These methods provide a framework to examine and communicate levels of geologists’ confidence and uncertainty. Communicating levels of certainty, relevance, and significance allows reservoir characterization studies to be more transparent to subsequent researchers, future readers, and even to the original investigator.

 

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90078©2008 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas