--> Abstract: Uncertainty Evaluation of the In-place Oil/Gas in the North Kuwait Jurassic Sequences, by Sunil Singh, Yuan Z. Ma, Waleed Ahmad, Abdel Hameed, Rafi Aziz, Mishari Al-Awadi, Meshal Al-Wadi, Oki T. Musakti, Williams Clark, Ernest Gomez, Omer Gurpinar, and Jaime Moreno; #90072 (2007)

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Uncertainty Evaluation of the In-place Oil/Gas in the North Kuwait Jurassic Sequences

Sunil Singh1, Yuan Z. Ma2, Waleed Ahmad1, Abdel Hameed1, Rafi Aziz1, et al.
1Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi, Kuwait
2Schlumberger Data and Consulting Services, Greenwood Village, CO

The Jurassic strata of northeastern Kuwait include significant carbonate reservoir formations. Based on 3-D seismic and 14 wells, an area of approximately 1400 square kilometers that contains several structures was delineated for resource evaluation. To move the project into the development and production phase, assessing the in-place hydrocarbon volumetrics was critical. However, because of the geologic complexity and limited data, uncertainty of the hydrocarbon accumulations in such a large area was very high.
Traditionally, Monte Carlo simulation was used for evaluating volumetric uncertainty. However, the Monte Carlo method does not fully use geologic knowledge to address the heterogeneities of the reservoir geometric variables (such as structural and stratigraphic controls) on the hydrocarbon accumulation, nor does it fully use petrophysical analysis to address the heterogeneities of the petrophysical variables.
In this paper, an uncertainty evaluation workflow within a framework of the 3-D reservoir model is presented. Both reservoir geometric and petrophysical heterogeneities were taken into consideration in evaluating the hydrocarbon volumetric uncertainty. Specifically, studies of the structural geology and sequence stratigraphy helped define the uncertainty that impacts the total rock volume of the reservoirs; and petrophysical studies helped define the uncertainty of the pore space and fluid content. Based on the definitions of the input uncertainties in structure, stratigraphy, facies, porosity, fluid contact and saturation, the workflow generated the hydrocarbon volumetric uncertainty of the study area using a statistical distribution. This allowed for the selection of the most likely (P50), pessimistic (P90), and optimistic (P10) scenarios for field development planning.

 

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90072 © 2007 AAPG and AAPG European Region Conference, Athens, Greece