Dealing with Geological Uncertainties in Economic-Environmental Predictions on CCS: Approach of the Policy Support System for Carbon Capture and Storage

Kris Piessens
Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is increasingly considered as an important mitigation technology for the next few decades, as is well illustrated by the increasing number of demonstration projects and the intentions to build power plants capture ready. CCS technology also moved into the spotlights in economic-environmental simulations. Forecasts show that CCS may become very important, surpassing the mitigation shares of nuclear and renewable energy (e.g. IEA's ‘Energy Technology Perspectives 2006').
The current simulators are well equipped to deal with a range of energy technologies. The cost and environmental performance of each depends on economic parameters and technology learning curves, which in their turn may depend on socio-political outlooks (e.g. expected emission targets or R&D support) and economic trends (e.g. discount rates or fuel costs).
Uncertainties are taken into account using a stochastic approach for most technical and economic uncertainties. The variable socio-political context can introduce very large uncertainties on key parameters, such as on the price/cost of CO₂, and require a scenario approach.
CCS-technology poses additional challenges to simulation schemes. The goal of the Belgian research project Policy Support System for Carbon Capture and Storage (PSS-CCS) is to develop an ad-hoc simulator that addresses CCS specific issues and provide more correct results than are currently achievable.
The issue here focussed on is the natural, geological variability as a significant source of uncertainty. The approach taken towards the reservoir uncertainties in the PSS-CCS project will be outlined, as well as the impact on the simulation results in relation to the real-world situation. In view of the expertise on comparable risks and uncertainties, we seek feedback from the petroleum community.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90072 © 2007 AAPG and AAPG European Region Conference, Athens, Greece