He, Zhiyong¹
(1) ZetaWare, Inc, Plano, TX

ABSTRACT: Novel Approaches in Quantitative Petroleum System Analysis

The typical use of a basin modeling tool today, remains to be studying the process of basin development, hydrocarbon generation and migration. The goals of such studies are often limited to timing of hydrocarbon generation and maturity prediction. Charge volumes are usually not quantitatively predicted due to the large uncertainties involved in the input parameters such as permeability distribution, heat flow variation and source rock parameters. 
Recently, we have developed techniques to quantify charge risks of petroleum prospects by integrating Monte Carlo methods with multi-dimensional basin models. The result is expressed as cumulative probability distribution of charge volumes (both oil and gas) for each petroleum prospect. The distribution of gas-oil-ratio (GOR) can also be quantified. This may be the industry’s first multidimensional charge risking system to include the use of laterally and temporally varying inputs, such as source rock isopachs and heat flow maps. 
Applications of the charge risking system in several actively explored basins around the world prove that the system can help evaluate and reduce risks associated with drilling petroleum prospects and is very useful in ranking petroleum exploration portfolios. In return this development has helped make basin modeling techniques much more useful in exploration settings.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90026©2004 AAPG Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas, April 18-21, 2004.