Population and Energy—2001/2100

R. H. Clark
Geologist

Hand wringing scenarios for the new century abound, predicting exhaustion of energy resources, a runaway world population and a profound loss of quality of life.

Contrarily, this paper predicts a comfortable end of century transition based on data that world population is peaking and energy resources are abundant. The US Census Bureau estimates world population at about 6.2 billion. The UN year 2000 revision of world population prospects concludes that in much of Europe, the United States, Japan, New Zealand, and others, fertility rates are below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a population. It charts high, medium and low variant cases. My choice, the low variant case, predicts world population will top out at 7.9 billion people about year 2040, then decline slowly, thereby stabilizing and reducing future energy requirements. The chart terminates at year 2050, but if one plots a downward curve at the same rate as the upward curve, world population will drop to about today’s 6.2 billion, a level easily supportable by world energy resource estimates in the supply/demand scenario presented in the full text of this paper.

So what is the energy future for this century? It will be overwhelmingly electrical because of convenience and virtual elimination of pollution in the presence of the end user. The electricity will come from an enormous number of generating plants fueled by an abundance of coal, coal gases, nuclear, natural gas, and methane from frozen gas hydrates. Hydro, solar, wind, waves, thermal, etc. will occupy niche situations. On the other hand, hydrogen will remain an unrealized hope, and farms growing biomass will convert to crops of food, fiber, and timber.

Liquid petroleum will become ever more dear. There is still no substitute for a powerful, portable fuel to run automobiles, farm machinery, and aircraft. To find enough liquid petroleum for such specific purposes will demand that all prospective basins, heavy oil accumulations, and tar belts be fully exploited on land and under the sea. If there must be rationing, it most likely will be for diesel and gasoline.

A strong conservation ethic will not be a topic of debate, but will simply be that which is done.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90903©2001 AAPG Mid-Continent Meeting, Amarillo, Texas