--> Graphic Results—Panhandle Area Ogallala Groundwater Model—1950–2050, by J. Atkinson; #90903 (2001)

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Graphic Results—Panhandle Area Ogallala Groundwater Model—1950–2050

J. Atkinson
Regional Water Planning Director, Panhandle Water Planning Group, Amarillo, TX

Beginning in 1998, the state of Texas was divided into 16 regions, each of which was charged with developing a long-term, comprehensive water resource plan covering the period from the year 2000 through 2050. Each plan was to document water availability in the region, water estimated to be used in the region, and the resulting surplus or deficit of supply. These analyses were conducted for each individual water user group in the region. Major use groups included municipal, mining, livestock, manufacturing, steam-electric power generation, and agricultural. The Panhandle relies heavily on groundwater to supply the needs of the area and the Ogallala Aquifer is the single largest water resource in the area. A major focus of the plan ning effort in this region was the development of a graphic computernumeric model of the Ogallala Aquifer.

The Ogallala has been modeled many times in the past, although there has not been a model that focused specifically on the 21 county area and that was developed with local level input, data and oversight. The Bureau of Economic Geology was hired to develop a model of the Ogallala and was charged by the PanhandleWater Planning Group with the development of a model that produced the most accurate picture of the state of the resource and that was not constrained by traditional limitations. The developed model would be required to provide a 50-year history of the aquifer and a 50-year projection, on 5-year intervals, of the future status of the resource.

The model was developed using historical data from local groundwater conservation districts, state records, well-driller logs, and other sources. Current and projected demand estimates were also developed regionally. A 50-year history was deemed necessary in order to compare the function of the model with historical drawdown and water table measurements. The resulting baseline detailed the amount of water in storage, by county, and provided insight as to the characteristics of the aquifer. To develop the 50-year projections, the model was programmed to compare the baseline water in storage with the cumulative 50-year demands, by water user groups. The results of this comparison, shown on 5-year intervals, provide an excellent projection of what the status of the aquifer will be in the future. The future status projections allow the Planning Group and interested parties to compare water in storage totals at various points throughout time and help identify areas that might experience a deficit of available groundwater as compared to demands.

The presentation will include a brief description of the Regional Planning Process, data on water use unique to the Panhandle region, and an animated presentation of the graphical model results depicting saturated thickness of the aquifer for the period 1950 to 2050.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90903©2001 AAPG Mid-Continent Meeting, Amarillo, Texas