Fred T. Mackenzie¹, A. Lerman², L. M. B. Ver¹
(1) University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
(2) Northwestern University, Evanston, IL

Abstract: Carbon cycle in the past 300 years and future projections

Four major pertubations owing to human activities on land, and global temperature change have affected the global carbon cycle since the year 1700. The process-driven model of the coupled biogeochemical cycles of C-N-P-S (TOTEM) anaylzes the cycles of these elements as forced by global emissions from fossil-fuel burning, land-use change, agricultural fertilization of croplands, organic sewage discharges, and a slight temperature rise. The model results for atmospheric CO2 in the past 300 years agree well with the observed increase. The model estimates the increases in the delivery of land-derived carbon and its transformations in the coastal ocean, changes in the tropic status (net heterotrophy or autotrophy) of the coastal ocean, and consequences of possible changes in the oceanic thermohaline circulation. The model also estimates the atmospheric concentration and storage and transport of carbon for future decades, to the middle of the 21st century, based on different scenarios of environmental pertubations.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90914©2000 AAPG Annual Convention, New Orleans, Louisiana