Peter D. Carragher¹
(1) BP Amoco, Houston, TX

Abstract: Leveraging Learnings From Exploration Risk

During the 1990s the principles of managing Exploration Risk have become well established in companies of all sizes. Processes are based upon the systematic understanding of the petroleum system, estimation of risk factors, and the rational measurement of uncertainty of potential reserves. Companies which have combined these systematic evaluations with constantly improving technology have been rewarded by higher success rates, and the discovery of significant new fields.

This paper forecasts some of the opportunities and challenges involved in leveraging the lessons learned from exploration risk into other parts of the industry. The two opportunities closest at hand for geoscientists skilled in risk and resource evaluations are helping to improve drilling performance and maximizing the value from appraisal programs.

Skill at predicting and assessing risk is aligned with the needs of the drilling community in avoiding "drilling surprises". The opportunity is to ensure lower, more predictable overall drilling costs throughout the E&P cycle. The challenges include interpretation of the complete earth cube and effectively communicating risks in a timely and accurate manner.

Quantification of uncertainty is directly relevant to the post discovery, appraisal phase. The opportunity is to improve the appraisal and development planning process, minimizing capital investment and maximizing production and recovery. The ability to carry multiple models of reservoir performance during the appraisal and early production phases is a key success factor. Challenges include making the case for collecting the right amount of subsurface data, and clearly communicating the uncertainties to technical and commercial managers.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90914©2000 AAPG Annual Convention, New Orleans, Louisiana