Abstract: Oil in the South Atlantic: A Strategic Outlook to 2005

Mittner, Mike - International Energy Agency

The International Energy Agency’s medium-term oil supply and demand forecasts to 2005 will be presented for Latin America and West Africa, in the context of projections for global supply and demand. Non-OPEC production is expected to continue to grow significantly, and OPEC will be sufficient to provide the remaining supply that will be needed to meet the range of expected world demand scenarios.

Among the regions of the world, Latin America and West Africa are expected to be among the fastest growing with respect to both oil supply and demand. Oil supply forecasts for these highly prospective regions will be presented. Key countries and important areas or fields within those countries will be examined. Underpinning the oil supply projections, the cost structure for finding, developing, and lifting oil will be addressed.

Oil demand forecasts for Latin America and West Africa will also be discussed. The demand projections will include a breakdown by sector, including consumption for industrial, transport, commercial, and residential uses. The share of oil in the total energy demand for the regions will be presented, and the driving forces behind the demand estimates will be examined, with countries such as Brazil and Angola being highlighted. The analysis will also demonstrate the growing importance of the South Atlantic region to the world oil markets. In addition, the supply and demand forecasts for Latin America and West Africa will be combined to derive net import/export positions for the regions.

Finally, some comments on the macro-economic impacts of increasing oil production in the countries of the two regions will be made. The resulting increase in hard-currency revenues can have various effects, some positive and some negative.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90933©1998 ABGP/AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil