--> Abstract: Combining Engineering Considerations and Risk Assessment in the Design of Facilities, by G. Koller and P. Hammond; #90942 (1997).

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Abstract: Combining Engineering Considerations and Risk Assessment in the Design of Facilities

KOLLER, GLENN, and PHIL HAMMOND

A typical production risk assessment results in risk-weighted production and volumes. Input variables generally include things like hydrocarbon pore volume, seal quality, porosity, attic oil, net-to-gross, recovery factor, decline exponent, and other pertinent variables. These variables usually are represented as distributions and are combined in equations which calculate risk-weighted product production, cumulative production and other output variables. Variables which represent chance-of-failure, such as trap-definition failure, trap timing, charge, and others also typically are considered.

Adding economics to such risk analyses also is typical. This usually requires the addition of variables that represent capex, opex, depreciation schedules, escalation factors, etc. Output variables generally include risk-weighted cash flows (time series), NPV, and other financial outputs.

Not so typical of such risk analyses is the consideration of "downtime" engineering events that can significantly effect the financial aspects of the risk assessment. Such events might include the costs and times to re-enter a well, the costs and times to fix flowline failures of various types (hydrate plugs formed, etc.), the costs and times related to replacing flowlines, the costs associated with facility downtime, and other considerations. This paper will demonstrate the integration of such atypical considerations in production risk assessment models.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90942©1997 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Vienna, Austria