--> ABSTRACT: Level of Knowledge in Determination of Total Probability of Success: A Process to Better Characterize Risk in Your Projects, by D. W. Waples and N. R. Timbel; #91021 (2010)

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Level of Knowledge in Determination of Total Probability of Success: A Process to Better Characterize Risk in Your Projects

WAPLES, DOUGLAS W., and NED R. TIMBEL

Total probability of success has previously been used as an estimate, of the overall technical confidence in a prospect, play, or basin. Estimates of total probability of success for a group of opportunities are then used for portfolio prioritization or resource assessment studies. The knowledge curve (Megill, 1977) has been presented to illustrate that as the level of knowledge increases during evaluation of an opportunity, the range of possible outcomes decreases. Unfortunately, the level of knowledge has seldom been properly considered during calculation of the total probability of success.

A process is presented here that allows for more realistic determination of the total probability of success by considering the level of knowledge. The method is based on a logarithmic technical risk factor scale from -x to +x where 0 represents average risk or where no data are available. Maximum (+x) and minimum (-x) allowed risk factor values are calculated from the actual or perceived random probability of success. Based on technical confidence, each parameter such as reservoir thickness, porosity, and source richness is assigned a risk factor within the range -x to +x. Total probability of success is then calculated. This process should encourage the use of risk analysis earlier in the project cycle when results may be used to direct technical study. Two examples using actual data are provided to illustrate in detail the level of knowledge concept.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91021©1997 AAPG Annual Convention, Dallas, Texas.