Abstract: Virginia's Coal Resources--An Update

Robert C. Milici, Elizabeth V. M. Campbell

In the mature coal mining regions of the Appalachian basin, state production statistics can be used to model future production rates and to estimate the time of ultimate depletion of the resource. These projections are more accurate if the production data are analyzed by bed, by county. In the absence of the resource data necessary to calculate coal reserves, the remaining recoverable coal can be estimated by extrapolating current production decline rates into the future.

In 1989, the Virginia Division of Mineral Resources, calculated remaining reserves to be between 1.9 and 4.1 billion tons and concluded that a general production decline would occur between 1995 and 2011, when half of the original reserve (cumulative production plus remaining reserve) would be mined. Subsequently, Virginia's coal production peaked at 46.5 million tons in 1990 and has declined to 37.6 million tons in 1995. The current cumulative production, nearly 2.1 billion tons, is about half of an ultimate recoverable resource of 4.2 billion tons. Extrapolation of current production decline rates of 2.4% per year into the next century indicates that Virginia's annual coal production will fall to 25 million tons within 25 years and to 11 million tons within 50 years.

Of the 43 beds mined for coal in Virginia, thirteen commonly produce 1 million tons or more annually. The decline is related chiefly to reduced production from the Dorchester, Lower Banner, Pocahontas No. 3, Raven, Splash Dam, and Upper Banner coal beds. Pocahontas No. 3 production, the largest in the state, has declined from about 9.8 million tons in 1990, to about 7 million tons in 1995.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90950©1996 AAPG GCAGS 46th Annual Meeting, San Antonio, Texas