Abstract: Oil & Gas in the 1990's and Beyond: Adequate Supplies, Growing Demand, Flat Prices

John L. Kennedy

Long term petroleum market fundamentals are clear: supplies are adequate and world demand will continue to grow steadily. Adequate supplies insure that prices will not increase significantly, on average, till the end of the 1990s, probably much beyond. Despite plentiful supply and modest price increases, there will be peaks and valleys in the price graph as productive capacity is used up, then expanded. Tens of billions of dollars will be needed over the next decade to expand producing capacity.

World oil consumption will increase at about 1.5% per year, at least for the next decade. Demand in Asia and Latin America will grow several times faster than this average world rate. World natural gas demand will grow at more then 2% per year well past 2000.

Oil and gas companies around the world have changed the way they operate to survive the market realities of the 1990's. restructuring, outsourcing, and partnering will continue as increasing costs and flat prices squeeze profits. Energy use patterns will change. Fuel and other product specifications will change. Market shares of oil and gas will shift.

But opportunities abound in this new market environment. Growing markets always provide opportunities. Technology has helped operators dramatically lower finding, developing, and producing costs.

The petroleum age is far from being over. Growing markets, adequate supply, affordable products, and a 60 percent market share. Those are the signs of an industry with a bright future.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90960©1995 AAPG Southwest Section Meeting, Dallas, Texas