Abstract: The Future of Oil and Gas in Northern Alaska

Kenneth J. Bird, Frances Cole, David G. Howell, Leslie B. Magoon

The North Slope accounts for about 98 percent of Alaska's total oil production or about 1.6 MMBOPD (million barrels of oil per day). This makes Alaska the number two oil-producing State, contributing about 25% of the Nation's daily oil production. Cumulative North Slope production at year-end 1993 was 9.9 BBO (billion barrels of oil). Natural gas from the North Slope is not marketable for lack of a gas transportation system. At year-end 1993, North Slope reserves as calculated by the State of Alaska stood at 6.1 BBO and 26.3 TCFG.

The North Slope remains a lightly explored region with about one exploratory well per 300 square miles. North Slope oil production began in 1977, ten years after the discovery of the Prudhoe Bay oil field, North America's largest (12+ BBO ultimate recovery). By 1988, production from Prudhoe Bay and three other oil fields peaked at 2 MMBOPD; since then production has declined to the current rate of 1.6 MMBOPD in spite of six more oil fields coming into production. Undiscovered, economically recoverable oil resources, as of 1987, were estimated at 0-26 BBO (mean probability, 8 BBO) for the onshore region and adjacent State waters by the USGS and 0-5 BBO (mean probability, <1 BBO) for the federal offshore by the Minerals Management Service.

An important factor affecting the future of existing North Slope oil fields and all future oil field development is the continued operation of TAPS (Trans-Alaska Pipeline System). A basic but unanswered question is the minimum throughput rate required for efficient, cost effective operation. Recent studies by the U.S. Department of Energy have assumed a range of minimum throughput rates to illustrate the effects of a shutdown of TAPS. Using reserve and production rate numbers from existing fields, a TAPS shutdown is predicted for year-end 2008 assuming minimum rates of 400 MBOPD (thousand barrels of oil per day), and year-end 2014 assuming minimum rates of 200 MBOPD. In both cases, producible oil would be left in the ground: 1,000 MMBO for the 2008 scenario and 500 MMBO for the 2014 s enario. Because the time between field discovery or decision-to-develop and first production is about 10 years, new or discovered fields may need to be brought into production by 1998 to assure continued operation of the pipeline and maximum oil recovery.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90958©1995 AAPG Pacific Section Meeting, San Francisco, California