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Abstract: Analysis of the Petroleum Resources of the Norwegian Continental Shelf

Inger P. Fjaertoft, Erling Kvadsheim, Jan E. Kalheim, Pal Rullestad, Kristin Osen, Harald Brekke

The 1995 analysis of the petroleum resources of Norway is based on a play analysis. The input to the 1995 analysis is updated and refined compared with the analysis of 1993.

The analysis makes a major distinction between unconfirmed play models and plays confirmed by discoveries. The unconfirmed plays have a higher risk and a greater range of uncertainty in the resource estimates compared to the confirmed plays. The effect of the unconfirmed plays on the estimates within different exploration areas is discussed. The unconfirmed play models are an important aspect of the exploration in the new exploration areas north of 62°N.

The total estimate for the Norwegian Shelf is well within the estimate given in the 1993 analysis, but there are some adjustments in the relative importance of the different exploration provinces.

Much emphasis is placed on incorporating historical exploration data and statistics to calibrate the play models. This includes rate of success and field size distributions of the individual play models and exploration provinces. Major confirmed plays in the North Sea have a rate of success of about 30% and show a good fit to a log normal field size distribution. Based on the Jog normal distribution it is possible to give prognosis for the size distribution of the undiscovered accumulations. This has made it possible to work out an economic analysis of the profitability of future exploration on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90956©1995 AAPG International Convention and Exposition Meeting, Nice, France