--> ABSTRACT: Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Make Better Exploration and Production Decisions, by Tarek Y. Ghazi; #91020 (1995).

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Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Make Better Exploration and Production Decisions

Tarek Y. Ghazi

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a multicriteria decision making approach developed by mathematician Thomas L. Saaty. It is available in several inexpensive, flexible, and easy-to-use computer programs. These tools can be applied to a wide range of exploration and production problems, which include risk analysis, portfolio management, cost-benefit analysis, and group decision making. It enables both tangible criteria (like dollars) and intangible criteria (like strategic fit) to be considered together in the same decision making process. AHP programs also help do sensitivity analysis and what-if scenario testing. They also provide valuable text and graphical documentation of how important decisions are made.

A brief introduction to AHP will be followed by several examples of AHP applications in exploration and production decision making. One application shows how to assign numbers to geologic prospect risks, by asking simple plain-English questions. Another example shows how to prioritize the exploration opportunities in a portfolio by combining geologic, political, and economic criteria. A cost-benefit example shows how to estimate the bottom-line value of purchasing integrated geoscience workstations. The last example will illustrate how to use AHP tools to help reach consensus on difficult issues in almost any meeting.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91020©1995 AAPG Annual Convention, Houston, Texas, May 5-8, 1995