Abstract: An Integration of Secondary Hydrocarbon Migration Modeling and GIS into Resource Assessment

Marek Kacewicz

Prospect counting methods, widely used to assess petroleum reserves, do not account for the dynamic character of petroleum systems. Present-day accumulations result from prolonged activity (tens or hundreds of millions of years) of geological and geochemical processes such as sedimentation, burial, faulting, tilting, hydrocarbon generation, migration, losses, entrapment, and remigration. The number, sizes, and spatial distributions of discovered and undiscovered prospects, obtained from prospect counting, should be put into the context of potential migration fairways, timing, preservation of hydrocarbons, leaking, etc. This can be achieved by applying numerical basin modeling methods linked with GIS together with spatial statistics and stochastic processes. The modeling should be base on multi-scenario approaches and should account for uncertainty related to migration conduits, flow parameters, faults, seals, fractures, source rock location, movement of salt, etc.

This paper presents a resource assessment method based on both prospect counting and hydrocarbon migration modeling. The methodology accounts for the uncertainty related to flow parameters, hydrocarbon losses, and timing. The method gives more realistic answers than traditional approaches by eliminating those prospects which are not adjacent to migration pathways. A brief discussion of the applicability of the method to frontier and mature areas is provided.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90986©1994 AAPG Annual Convention, Denver, Colorado, June 12-15, 1994