--> Crude Oil Production Forecasts 21st Century: U.S. and World, by J. D. Edwards, A. A. Bartlett, and R. A. Ristinen; #90986 (1994).

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Abstract: Crude Oil Production Forecasts 21st Century: U.S. and World

John D. Edwards, Albert A. Bartlett, Robert A. Ristinen

Forecasting is tenuous in the petroleum industry for supply, demand, price, and ultimate recovery. However, this does not deter us from predictions of future discovery and production volumes of this vital resource. King Hubbert in 1956 predicted peak U.S. crude oil production would be reached by 1971. He was correct. He predicted that the rise and subsequent fall of consumption of a depletable resource would follow a symmetrical curve. This symmetry is perturbed by variable rates of discovery, supply and demand. Supply will balance increasing demand tempered by price, conservation and economic cycles until production can no longer increase because of the inevitable decrease in discovery of new reserves. Price escalation will then bring unconventional crude into production from tar san s, coal and oil shales. Predictions of future annual crude oil production are made for the U.S. and world based on reasonable ranges of demand growth and current estimates of undiscovered reserves (U.S. 75 to 180 billion barrels including reserve growth) (World 500 to 1500 billion barrels).

Quantitatively analyzed minimum, most likely, and probable maximum scenarios will be presented for U.S. and world production through the Twenty-First Century. Peak world crude oil production is predicted between 2010 and 2020 in the range of 74 to 98 million barrels per day. U.S. production could fall below 3.5 million barrels per day by 2020 even with the addition of 50 billion barrels of new reserves by then. Research and development must provide economically viable alternate energy sources by that time.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90986©1994 AAPG Annual Convention, Denver, Colorado, June 12-15, 1994