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GOMEZ, EDITH B., Corpoven, S.A., Caracas, Venezuela

ABSTRACT: Estimation of Geologic Risks and Economic Ranking of Exploratory Prospects

The major constraint on the exploratory process is the estimation of risks before drilling. In order to judge the merits of a group of exploratory prospects it is necessary to estimate the recoverable hydrocarbon volumes and their probability of success. Then, the future income generated by the prospects can be calculated and compared with the development costs of the reserves. Therefore, the decision to drill or not can be carried out using an economic criteria.

For the purpose of deciding whether or not to make the investment needed for development of an exploratory area this paper presents a methodology for risk evaluation and estimation, and a technical and economic ranking, of the exploratory prospects. This methodology takes into account the risks and uncertainties and the common economic yardsticks used in the decision procedure (pay-out time, expected value, rate of return, etc.).

This method can be used for explorationist and decision makers as a tool to evaluate, estimate and understand the risk analysis theory and to help in the decision making process, hence reducing uncertainties in petroleum exploration.

This paper presents a discussion of the proposed methodology and a case history.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90988©1993 AAPG/SVG International Congress and Exhibition, Caracas, Venezuela, March 14-17, 1993.