ABSTRACT: The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for Natural Gas

KOKLAUNER, ANNETTE, Gas Research Institute, Washington, DC

The potential of the global natural gas resource has gained renewed attention in recent years as energy diversification and environmental concerns have risen in significance. Conventional estimates affirm the importance of gas as an underutilized element in the portfolio of energy sources available to serve future requirements. Current estimates of remaining recoverable gas reserves world-wide are about 8000 tcf, of which 4209 tcf are proved reserves established by drilling information.

The availability of natural gas to meet global requirements involves more than just the geologic existence of the resource. The geographic importance of transportation and distribution costs as a constraint on global gas consumption cannot be ignored. High transportation/distribution costs and operational rigidity has only allowed international trade to develop on a very limited, regional scale. In the short term, geologic resources of natural gas that can be produced at prices competitive with alternative energy forms are more than ample to meet the probable market requirements. In the longer term, overall energy prices may be expected to be higher.

The greater uncertainty is the capability of global markets to develop rational approaches to the international gas trade and to underwrite the large, long-term investments in transportation and distribution facilities that will be necessary to moderate the geographic imbalances between supply and demand. The focus of discussions about natural gas supply availability to meet global requirements should include these infrastructure factors along with resource estimates.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91012©1992 AAPG Annual Meeting, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, June 22-25, 1992 (2009)