--> Abstract: Numerical Modeling of Secondary Hydrocarbon Migration--Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis, by M. Kacewicz; #91012 (1992).

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ABSTRACT: Numerical Modeling of Secondary Hydrocarbon Migration--Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

KACEWICZ, MAREK, Atlantic Richfield Company, Exploration and Production Technology, Plano, TX

Three-dimensional secondary hydrocarbon migration models combine several multidisciplinary methods and techniques, such as classic geological reconstructions, geochemical data analysis, seismic section analysis, differential equations, spatial statistics, and geostatistics. Each of these has limitations and assumptions that must be well understood to prevent significant mistakes and misinterpretations. Different methods have different data requirements, and the quality and quantity of data directly affect the applicability of a method. For example, statistical methods and techniques commonly used in mature areas to predict such rock properties as porosity and permeability may have restricted use in frontier areas and in some cases should not be applied at all.

One of the main problems encountered in modeling is describing and accounting for data uncertainty when predicting rock properties that are used in hydrocarbon migration models. The description of uncertainty differs from area to area and depends on the number and quality of data. In frontier areas where data are mostly qualitative, techniques such as fuzzy-set theory and fuzzy inferences are useful. Geostatistics and spatial statistics become more applicable with increasing number of wells and laboratory tests.

Another problem is modeling the efficiency of secondary hydrocarbon migration. The methodology depends on how much we know about the tectonic evolution of a basin as well as on the qualitative and quantitative character of data. Methods vary from stochastic generations of quasi traps/leaks to detailed timing of faults and structures, leak/charge analysis, fault transmissibility, etc.

In the first part of the paper, methods describing uncertainty of qualitative and quantitative data are reviewed, and the effects of this uncertainty on porosity and permeability predictions are discussed. The second part addresses problems of parameter uncertainty and its influence on the results of secondary hydrocarbon migration models.

 

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91012©1992 AAPG Annual Meeting, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, June 22-25, 1992 (2009)