ABSTRACT: Statistical Estimation of Exploration-Well Reserves in Mature Areas

Field Roebuck

It is generally accepted that the field-size distribution in a depositional basin invariably exhibits log-normal behavior. Specific evidence shows that the same type of analysis can be used to develop expected value reserve levels or complete reserve-size probability distributions for individual exploration wells in mature areas, or when minimum and maximum reserves can be estimated. Example analyses and their straightforward, mechanical treatment, along with the requirements that must be met for analysis of both oil and gas drilling prospects, illustrate this method.