Print this pageAbstract: Present and Future Supply of Energy Resources of the World
The availability of energy is a decisive factor for the future and for the progress of mankind. In discussing energy problems, emphasis presently is laid on the political and economic aspects of its availability. However, the physical availability of energy-supplying raw materials, from the technical and geoscientific point of view, is dependent on (a) the total energy resources available on the earth; (b) the percentage of resources that are economically exploitable reserves; and (c) the percentage of resources that can be transferred into reserves within the foreseeable future.
On the basis of these considerations, it is possible to infer the contribution of individual sources toward the energy supply for the period until the year 1985, until the year 2000, and for the first few decades after the year 2000.
The German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources assesses the total fossil-energy resources as 12,500 × 109 tons of coal equivalents, 900 × 109 tons of which presently are rated as reserves. In comparison with these figures, the annual world energy consumption is approximately 9 × 109 tons of coal equivalents. Coal is 80% of the resources and 60% of the reserves. The known uranium reserves amount to 6.5 × 106 tons which, according to the present state of reactor technology, is equivalent to an energy potential of about 100 × 109 tons of coal equivalents. About the same quantity of uranium exploitable at a price of up to US$130/kg can be inferred. Additionally, about 40 to 50 × 10 tons of uranium are in low-grade ore and about 4,000 × 109 tons are dissolved in seawater.
The abundance of coal reserves implies no restrictions are necessary as yet. It is more likely that the supply will be limited owing to insufficient production capacities, the availability of specific qualities, and conditions imposed for environmental protection. Limits to the physical availability of oil and natural gas, however, are beginning to be discernible. The production rate for oil exceeded the rate of new discoveries for the first time in 1976. Oil production probably will have surpassed its peak around the year 1990. The exploitation of hydrocarbons in oil shales and tar sands available in large quantities implies a continuously increasing price level for energy. The availability of raw material for nuclear energy depends essentially on whether we succeed in developing and applying more efficient reactor technologies, in utilizing low-grade uranium deposits, and in partly substituting thorium for uranium. Otherwise, the supply of nuclear energy can be expected to become a problem before the end of this century.
By increased exploration activities and improved exploitation technologies, both of which imply a higher energy price level, it will become possible to transfer another considerable proportion of fossil- and nuclear-energy resources into reserves. Under these conditions and provided that all energy sources are utilized, the future energy supply can be secured, at least from a geoscientific and technical viewpoint. The theory that the physical availability of energy raw materials is finite within a calculable period of time is contradicted, as no one as yet has succeeded in quantifying the reserves of energy raw materials on the earth. To do this, an international program similar to the "Apollo Program," but aimed at the exploration of the earth, would be necessary. A program of this m gnitude certainly would require a similar investment of time, money, and knowhow.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90962©1978 AAPG 2nd Circum-Pacific Energy and Minerals Resource Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii