Abstract: Recent Results in Earthquake Prediction
John H. Healy
A research program started in the United States about 1965 has led to the discovery of premonitory signals before some earthquakes and may lead to a capability for the prediction of earthquakes. Extensive research on earthquake prediction also has been carried out in the Soviet Union, Japan, and China. Recently the Chinese successfully predicted a large earthquake.
Current research is concentrated on an effort to relate the observed premonitory phenomena to physical processes at the earthquake source. Although attractive hypotheses have been proposed, our knowledge of the premonitory phenomena still is largely empirical. Changes in seismic velocity, accelerated tilt at the earth's surface, uplift of the ground above the earthquake, and changes in the magnetic field have been observed and documented before some earthquakes. There also are more esoteric observations, such as the anomalous behavior of animals, which are not easy to document and explain.
Although there is disagreement among scientists about the amount of work required to achieve a reliable and practical prediction system, it now appears that a continued concentrated research effort eventually will lead to a useful prediction system.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90976©1976 AAPG-SEPM-SEG Pacific Section Meeting, San Francisco, California